Behind The Numbers: Week 4 FCS Football Preview

Week 4 of the 2026 college football season is finally here. We have another edition of our "Behind the Numbers" series here at FCS Football Central.

Our goal is to highlight teams every week and bring you what I think will be the most important statistic to monitor for that specific game. This isn't a comprehensive preview of the game; we will have that in another article each week, but it will allow me to give you important tidbits on a wide variety of games throughout the season.

We kicked off our Week 4 preview series with the MVFC and Big Sky earlier this week. Let's take a deep dive into some of the other big Week 4 games across the FCS.

Monmouth at Dartmouth

Can Dartmouth contain Tra Neal and Gavin Nelson?

Tra Neal and Gavin Nelson have turned into one of the most formidable offensive duos in the FCS over the past three games. They have combined for 500 receiving yards, which includes multiple explosive plays in a win over UAlbany last week. Dartmouth's defense frustrated a dominant Lehigh offense last Saturday, but faced backup quarterback Derek Morgan, who only attempted 13 passes. The battle between Monmouth's explosive wide receiver duo and Dartmouth's secondary will likely decide this game.

Stony Brook at Fordham

Which team can replicate last week's dominant rushing performance?

Stony Brook QB Quinn Boyd averaged 1.2 yards per carry last season and had a career-high of only 45 rushing yards until last weekend. Against Rhode Island, Boyd exploded for 153 rushing yards and 10.9 yards per carry. This propelled Stony Brook's rushing attack to 321 rushing yards in a blowout win.

Fordham started the season 0-3, which included two FBS losses and a loss to a solid Colgate team. Last week, the Rams crushed William & Mary behind 428 rushing yards on 9.3 yards per carry. Yohan-Li Louis and Janell James had breakout days, combining for 366 rushing yards. Both of these run defenses held their opponents under 4.0 yards per carry in Week 3. Whoever can impose the run game on the other team will likely control this game.

No. 6 Lehigh at Penn

Is this Lehigh's toughest test yet?

We'll say it one more time... Luke Yoder has been the most dominant, dependable player in FCS football this season. Despite the injury to quarterback Hayden Johnson and Dartmouth knowing that Lehigh wanted to run the ball, Yoder still pushed for 150 yards on 5.6 yards per carry. Penn has only played one game, but it could be the stiffest test for this Lehigh offense yet.

Penn had a historic defensive day against Bucknell, posting the best defensive success rate in the country (15%). They held the Bison to 84 passing yards and 40 rushing yards, averaging only 2.5 yards per play. Penn's offense only managed to average 4.6 yards per play, which is worrisome against a top FCS defense. This may be a real low-scoring game unless Derek Morgan can show he can move the chains more consistently.

No. 20 West Florida at SEMO

Which can find its groove offensively?

These are two teams that have been led by their defenses this year. SEMO ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency (34.7%), while the Argos rank 33rd (37.6%). SEMO has been equally effective against the run and pass, while West Florida has been more effective on passing plays. The major difference comes offensively, where UWF ranks 47th, and SEMO ranks outside the Top 100 (102nd).

The X-factor here is the status of West Florida quarterback Ty'ray Davis. He left last week's game with an injury, and his status is unknown for this weekend. On the SEMO side, the Redhawks have not been efficient offensively, but they have found a way to generate explosive plays. As we talked about last week, UWF has had its struggles limiting explosive plays. This cost them against Austin Peay. I expect both defensive fronts to dominate this game. Whichever offense can find big plays downfield may ultimately win this game.

Colgate at No. 23 Villanova

Can this Villanova rushing attack finally wake up?

Villanova was supposed to have an offense anchored by a dominant run game due to an experienced offensive line and two of the best running backs in the country. That has not been the case so far. The Wildcats rank 86th nationally in rushing success rate. Ja'briel Mace has still had a few explosive plays, but the consistency has just not been there. Now they face a Colgate defense that is 28th in the FCS in rushing success rate allowed. They have held every FCS opponent they've faced to under 106 yards this year.

Furman at Richmond

Can either offense find any rhythm?

Another game this week, another matchup where both offenses have struggled while the defenses have carried these teams. Furman has yet to score more than 20 points, while Richmond is averaging 29 PPG, but they haven't really faced much competition. Currently, Furman's offense ranks 112th in success rate (30.1%), while Richmond is 77th nationally at 36.8%.

Keep an eye on the running back matchup between Ben Croasdale (172 yards, 6.4 YPC) and Aziz Foster-Powell (228 yards, 5.3 YPC). Whichever team can establish the ground game and help out their quarterback will have a big advantage. The X-factor may be Furman quarterback Connor Ackerley. He replaced Jake Garcia last week and really helped the offense find some success late in the loss to SCSU. He led the offense to 14 points, while Garcia was only able to generate 3 points in the first half.

Western Carolina at ETSU

Which team will find a way to get stops in the red zone?

In FCS games, Western Carolina has averaged 41 PPG, while ETSU isn't far behind at 36 PPG against FCS opponents. These are backed up by efficiency numbers, where the Catamounts rank 13th nationally (46.8%), and ETSU sits at 16th nationally (46%). With both teams running an up-tempo style, we can expect a lot of points in this game.

The key here will be red zone execution. When the field shrinks, these spread offenses can start to struggle, but neither of these defenses has found a way to stop opponents in the red zone. ETSU has allowed TDs on 12 of 15 trips, while the Catamounts have allowed 14 TDs on 17 trips.

No. 12 Tennessee Tech at Wofford

How is Wofford going to score in this game?

Tennessee Tech has been one of the best defenses in the country. They completely suffocated Chattanooga's offense two weeks ago, which is the same team that just scored 41 points on Wofford last weekend. Wofford ranks 81st nationally with a 36.3% success rate. They are only averaging 13 points per game in their last three games, including a 7-point performance in a blowout loss to Chattanooga.

No. 15 Lamar at Nicholls

Which quarterback can perform in big moments?

Lamar has one of the best defensive fronts in the FCS, which has helped this team find success in low-scoring, low-possession games. The Cardinals have yet to score more than 23 points this year, but are still 2-0 against the FCS.

With these low-scoring games, the quarterback who can be most effective in key moments will likely find a way to win the day. Both Aidan McCown and Ean Rodrigue have struggled with efficiency, completing less than 60% of their passes. It may not be pretty, but finding a way to make a play on 3rd down or in the red zone will have a massive impact with limited possessions.

No. 25 Mercer at Abilene Christian

Which team's rushing game can set the tempo of this game?

Neither of these offenses has had a great start to the season. The passing game for both teams has been very limited, which is why I think this game will come down to who can control the game by establishing the run. Mercer ranks 30th nationally in rushing success rate, while Abilene Christian ranks 107th. However, the Wildcats may have unlocked their rushing attack against Idaho last week. They finished with a season-high 244 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry in the win.

UT Martin at No. 13 Austin Peay

Can Austin Peay find more consistency offensively?

Austin Peay has overwhelmed defenses with explosive plays, finding success on the ground and through the air. While this has been a successful formula, their down-to-down execution has been more of a mixed bag, posting a success rate of only 43.8%. While this rate isn't terrible, it's also nowhere near the elite level this offense is capable of operating at. I want to see if this offense can be more dependable and less reliant on big plays.

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