Behind The Numbers: Week 5 FCS Football Review

Our Behind The Numbers series continues to roll here at FCS Football Central.

Each week, we will highlight a couple of marquee national matchups, using success rate to get a deeper look than what the final score may tell you about what really happened in the game. We will take a look at the most dominant teams of the week, which teams outplayed their opponent but made too many mistakes to win the game, and which teams got outplayed but still escaped with a win.

Success rate takes out a lot of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is "successful" if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.

The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend's FCS football action in Week 5.

Quick Hits:

South Dakota State followed the exact formula we laid out in the preview. Stay out of 3rd-and-long situations and suffocate Illinois State's offense, never letting them have opportunities down the field. Illinois State ranked among the least explosive offenses in the country last weekend. While SDSU finished with a terrible success rate (13%) on 3rd-and-long, it didn't really matter because they never found themselves in those situations. They stayed ahead of the chains with a dominant run game and timely throws from Josh Holst.

North Dakota overcame a slow start and had a real bounce-back game on the ground. The Fighting Hawks had the 2nd-best rushing success rate of any team in the country at 68%. After their struggles against Indiana State two weeks ago, this was a big performance that allowed them to get back on track.

While Austin Peay got a blowout win over New Haven, feasting on explosive plays, the Govs posted a relatively poor success rate once again at 37.5%. That's a below-average offensive performance against sub-par competition. They've been living on timely explosive plays, but they have not put consistent down-to-down offensive drives together all season. It's something to monitor ahead of their matchup with Tarleton State.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 5?

In this section, we will highlight the teams that were the most dominant in success-rate margin (OFF SR-DEF SR). This will highlight which teams truly dominated, even if the final score hides what really happened. Games against non-Division I opponents were excluded.

Lamar (Net SR: 51.9%)
Central Connecticut State (Net SR: 27.6%)
Mercer (Net SR: 26.8%)
UAlbany (Net SR: 25.7%)
Monmouth (Net SR: 25.5%)
Holy Cross (Net SR: 23.5%)
Sacred Heart (Net SR: 22.6%)
Tarleton State (Net SR: 20.5%)
Abilene Christian (Net SR: 19%)

Lamar has had a dominant defense all season, but the Cardinals have turned up the offense over the past two weeks. They rolled up 480 total yards on only 53 plays, averaging 9.1 yards per play. Aiden McCown averaged an insane 19.1 yards per completion.

Central Connecticut State had one of the hardest schedules in the country, starting 0-3, but they took out those frustrations in their NEC opener. They had one of the highest explosive rates in the country. Holy Cross continued William & Mary's demise with a dominant 42-14 win, holding the Tribe to 4.0 yards per play.

As we see every week, whoever plays VMI will be featured in this section, and this week it was Mercer. The Bears held VMI to a 22% success rate, while their offense finished with 658 total yards on 8.5 yards per play. Mercer's offense racked up an insane 402 rushing yards on 8.6 yards per carry.

UAlbany utterly dominated a feisty Delaware State offense. The Hornets only had 29 rushing yards on 29 attempts, while the Great Danes finished with 6 sacks and 9 TFLs. Delaware State also struggled on 3rd downs, finishing 2-of-13 in those situations.

Interestingly, a couple of CAA games appear on our dominant list this weekend. Sacred Heart dominated Maine down to down but had poor execution on 3rd and 4th down (5-for-14). Both 4th downs were deep in Maine territory, which helped keep the final score from appearing as dominant (24-16).

Monmouth had one of the very best offensive success rates of the week at 60.6%, while also holding Towson to a 35.3% success rate. Yet somehow the Hawks only won this game 41-40. Monmouth's defense consistently fell apart on 3rd and 4th down. Towson went 11-of-18 on 3rd and 4th down. At the end of the day, Monmouth found a way to pull out the win.

Abilene Christian started UAC play in familiar style, dominating its first conference opponent of the season. The Wildcats suffocated this West Florida offense, controlling the run game and forcing several 3rd-and-longs. The Argos were awful in those situations, finishing with an 18% success rate.

Tarleton State may have played with its food against Chicago State, but still posted one of the most dominant results of the weekend. The Texans were incredible on the ground with 392 rushing yards on 9.8 yards per carry. It was the 5th-best rushing success rate in the entire country.

Which Week 5 Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Each week, this section will highlight teams that won the success rate battle but still lost the game. They outperformed their opponent down-to-down, but lost because of turnovers, penalties, special teams, or explosive plays.

Western Carolina 44, Tennessee Tech 20 (TTU 49,2%, WCU 44.9%)
Idaho 35, Montana State 34 (MSU 49.3%, Idaho 47.5%)
Northern Arizona 38, Idaho State 31 (ISU 56.9%, NAU 55.6%)
Stephen F. Austin 28, Incarnate Word 26 (UIW 39.2%, SFA 38.7%)

Tennessee Tech killed themselves with five turnovers, including four fumbles, despite outplaying Western Carolina down to down. Two of the fumbles came deep in Western Carolina territory; one was at midfield, and one was on their own 18-yard line, which led to a WCU field goal. Interestingly, the Golden Eagles had the 3rd-highest rushing success rate of any team in the country, but only gave their RBs the ball 13 times.

The biggest upset of the FCS football season also appears here. Montana State outplayed Idaho down to down, not by much, but this was basically an even game where both offenses were in full control. Both Idaho and the Bobcats had success rates over 50% on passing plays.

Northern Arizona controlled much of the game on the scoreboard despite the success rate of each offense being about even. The biggest difference in the game was that the Lumberjacks were far more explosive, averaging 8.2 yards per play compared to Idaho State's 6.2 yards per play. NAU also forced another two turnovers, which has been a winning formula for this team.

Stephen F. Austin faced its stiffest test of the season against Incarnate Word. Statistically, this game was very evenly matched, with both teams averaging about 5.8 yards per play. The Lumberjacks did miss three field goals in this game, which helped the Cardinals stay in the game late.

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