2025 FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: Villanova at Tarleton State

No. 12 seed Villanova will travel to No. 4 seed Tarleton State in the quarterfinals of the 2025 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday (Dec. 13) at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN. It will be the first-ever meeting between these two programs.

The winner will advance to the semifinals of the 2025 FCS Playoffs, where they will face the winner of No. 8 seed UC Davis and No. 9 seed Illinois State.

2025 Prediction Record: 154-50
2022-24 Record: 382-122

No. 12 Villanova at No. 4 Tarleton State

Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT Saturday (ESPN)

Line: Tarleton State (-12.5, FanDuel)

Series History: First Meeting

The path is much clearer for every team on this side of the bracket after North Dakota State's upset loss. Instead of Fargo, the road to Nashville now runs through Stephenville, Texas.

Tarleton State turned some heads last round with an impressive 31-13 win over North Dakota, showing the Texans have the size and physicality to go head-to-head with MVFC teams. On the other side, Villanova dismantled Harvard in a 52-7 blowout in the first round, following that up with a gritty win over No. 5 seed Lehigh in the second round.

With Tarleton State getting a ton of national hype this week, Villanova continues to fly under the radar going into the quarterfinals. The Wildcats have won 10 consecutive games, six of which were won by 10 points or more. The key to success for the Wildcats is simple.

Everything starts with the rushing attack, which was outstanding against Harvard in the first round. Unfortunately, Lehigh completely suffocated the Wildcats, holding Villanova to a season-low 27 rushing yards on 27 attempts. That can't happen again this weekend against Tarleton State's defense.

The Wildcats have leaned on Ja'briel Mace since David Avit's injury last month. Mace leads the team with 736 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Isaiah Ragland plays a key role as the No. 2 running back behind Mace, adding 672 yards and two scores.

Tarleton State's rushing defense has been hit-or-miss throughout the season, allowing over 200 yards in five games, but holding eight other opponents to less than 150 yards rushing. Last week, the Texans were excellent against a dangerous North Dakota rushing attack, which has me concerned that Villanova may struggle to find many explosive plays on the ground.

One thing this Tarleton defense does at an elite level is force turnovers. The Texans lead the country with a +30 turnover margin, which is unbelievable considering no other team is above +18 this year. Villanova quarterback Pat McQuaide has done an excellent job protecting the ball, throwing only two interceptions in 13 games. He faces his toughest challenge of the season against a Tarleton secondary that has forced 12 interceptions in the past six games.

Cornerback Kasyus Kurns always seems to find the ball, leading the Texans with six interceptions. The x-factors for Tarleton could be Yasir Holmes and Angelo Anderson, who lead an underrated pass-rush for the Texans. The duo has combined for 23.5 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks. Also, keep an eye on Brandon Tolvert, who has been one of the best defensive tackles in the FCS.

On the other side, Villanova's defense has been extremely impressive in key moments. Whether it's a key turnover, a crucial red zone stop, or a timely pass breakup, the Villanova defense finds a way to make a play when it's needed most. This will be critical this weekend against a Tarleton offense that's been extremely explosive all season.

The Wildcats are unfamiliar with Tarleton's unique slow-mesh RPO offense, which puts defenders in awkward situations. Villanova needs spectacular performances from linebackers Shane Hartzell and Turner Inge, who are the leaders of this defense. Hartzell is an all-around playmaker, leading the team in tackles (87), tackles for loss (15.5), and sacks (8).

Villanova has a young but talented secondary that will really be tested this weekend. Cornerback Zahmir Dawud has been excellent as a sophomore, posting 41 tackles, one interception, and 10 pass breakups. Safety Anthony Hawkins earned Freshman All-American honors this season, recording 51 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, one interception, and eight pass breakups.

Tarleton State has outstanding depth at wide receiver and tight end, featuring eight players who have recorded three or more receiving touchdowns. Peyton Kramer and Trevon West are two names to watch on Saturday, combining for over 1,400 yards and 11 touchdowns. Cody Jackson left last week's game with an injury, leaving his status for this weekend unknown.

Quarterback Victor Gabalis missed some time with an injury, but has been playing at an elite level since his return. He's thrown for nearly 2,700 yards, 28 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. He likes to spread the ball around, but look out for Marquis Willis if Jackson is unable to play. Willis is a true deep threat, leading the team with a 22.9 yards per reception average, including four catches for 133 yards against North Dakota last weekend.

An overlooked aspect of this Tarleton offense is the rushing attack, which has topped 140 yards in all but one game. Even after the loss of Tre Page III, the Texans have found playmakers to step up. The return of Tylan Hines, who was injured in Week 0, has truly been huge for Tarleton. In the past three games, he's recorded 415 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

It's hard to see Villanova keeping up with this Tarleton State offense. If the Wildcats can't keep the Texans under 30, I think it's going to be a difficult task to win this game on the road. I also think Gabalis has the advantage in the quarterback battle, finding some success against Villanova's secondary, which will put a ton of pressure on McQuaide to make plays against this Tarleton defense.

Give me the Texans to advance with another impressive all-around performance, overwhelming Villanova's defense in the second half.

Prediction: Tarleton State (34-20)

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