ESPN SP+ Model Predicts Final Score For Austin Peay-Abilene Christian

In one of three Top 25 matchups in Week 4, No. 18 Austin Peay hits the road to take on No. 14 Abilene Christian on Saturday night. It's a major UAC matchup that could not only shake up the conference race, but have an impact on the battle for an at-large bid for the FCS playoffs.

Don't let the 1-2 record fool you. Abilene Christian has lost two FBS games, but picked up a ranked win over Stephen F. Austin in Week 2. The Wildcats have a chance to add to their resume with another ranked win, making a case for a spot in the Top 10. It's also an important game for momentum as the Wildcats will play three Top 25 programs in the next four weeks, with two of three on the road.

After not receiving much preseason hype, Austin Peay skyrocketed into the polls with a dominant FBS win over Middle Tennessee State in Week 1. The Governors played well in a loss to Georgia and were dominated against an overmatched Morehead State team last week. If the Governors can add a ranked FCS win to their already impressive FBS win, they will have a strong case to make another significant jump in the FCS Top 25.

This will only be the second matchup all-time between these two programs. Abilene Christian edged out Austin Peay in a 35-34 thriller in Clarksville last season, storming back from a 27-14 halftime deficit.

ESPN's Bill Connelly released his score predictions for each Week 4 game using his SP+ formula. The model is a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.

According to Connelly's formula, Austin Peay is projected to pull off the upset 29-25 over Abilene Christian.

It's been all about defense for the Governors, which ranks top 10 nationally in total defense. The Govs have held opposing offenses to 250.7 yards and 16.3 points per game. The defense has thrived in generating negative plays with 21 tackles for loss and eight sacks. Chris Parsons has also stabilized the quarterback position, while the rushing attack has seen five different players record 10 or more carries.

For the Wildcats, the offense runs through quarterback Stone Earle. He's played well this season, completing 70.7% of his passes for 655 yards and four total touchdowns. Jordon Vaughn and Rovaughn Banks Jr. have combined for over 300 rushing yards and three scores. In their one FCS game, the Abilene Christian defense completely shut the run down. Can they stop a dynamic Austin Peay rushing attack? That may be the difference in this game.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7 pm CT on ESPN+.

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