Predicting Florida's 2025 Receiving Totals

The Florida Gators offense has a chance to be explosive in 2025, an adjective not often used the past few seasons in the swamp.

Now led by true sophomore DJ Lagway, Florida’s high-potential passing attack enters the year looking to be a strength of the team ready to take the next step. With plenty of mouths to feed, here is my prediction for the Florida Gators receiving numbers in 2025.

Production Outline

Ahead of projecting the statistics for each and every potential pass catcher at Florida this year, we must first establish the total passing production that is expected.

In the past three years under Billy Napier, Florida has averaged 2,929 passing yards on 361 attempts from the quarterback position per year. The Gators have scored 19 touchdowns on average through the air, sitting around 232 passing yards per game.

Now with Lagway at the helm full-time, the Gators should become immediately more dangerous. The young gunslinger’s pace as a freshman, adjusted to a Gator starters’ average drop backs, boosted the offense to around 251 passing yards per game, including a yards per attempt that was 1.7 more than on average. His Florida Gators On SI projection would be the best statline of any starter under Napier.

Lagway's Projection: 211 completions, 3,397 yards, 21 TDs, 10.2 YPA and 283 YPG

Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway throws in the team's practice inside The Swamp on Saturday, Aug. 2, 2025. | Kyle Lander / Florida Gators on SI

With Lagway’s projection as a baseline, the Gators' passing production isn’t complete just yet.

In all three of Napier’s seasons with Florida, the Gators backup quarterback has appeared in at least two games, averaging 10 percent of quarterback snaps and attempts. Florida’s second-string quarterbacks, removing Lagway last year and considering Aidan Warner instead, have averaged 17 completions and 200 yards with Napier.

To account for such, I have predicted 25 attempts for Florida backups, around 7 percent of the 358 total attempts, completing 15 for 125 yards and one touchdown. Though this would be far less than on average, it is based on the expectation that Lagway can stay healthy for a majority of the year.

Total Offensive Production: 226 completions, 3,522 yards and 22 TDs

Receiving History

With a deep stable of receiving talent on the roster, Florida should be expected to spread their passing production around, something they have done historically under Napier.

In his three years in Gainesville, the Gators have had 17 or more players catch one or more passes in every season, with seven or more recording over 100 yards each year. Despite their top two receivers combining for almost 50 percent of the teams receiving yards on average, it looks as if Florida will continue its effort to spread the ball in 2025.

“I do think there's some things that we can do not just with the receiver room, but the running back room and the tight end room, to kind of get a lot more people involved," offensive coordinator Russ Callaway said during fall camp. “That's kind of been the goal starting last spring throughout summer, and we're going to continue on that way.”

With that in mind, here is the breakdown of receiver-share averages in Napier’s offense.

Receiving Breakdown

	Team Reception %	Team Yards %	Team TD %
WR 1	19.4	27.1	23.2
WR 2	18.8	21.3	17
WR 3	12.5	10.8	12.2
WR 4	6.5	7.9	7.2
WR 5	8.4	6.9	7.2
WR 6	7	5.3	9
WR 7	4.4	4.4	7
WR 8	3.6	3.6	5.3
WR 9	3.5	2.8	0
WR 10	3	2.6	7.3
WR 11	4.6	2.3	0
WR 12	1.62	1.6	1.8
WR 13	2.9	1.3	3.6
WR 14	0.96	0.92	0
WR 15	1.1	0.67	0
WR 16	0.61	0.44	0
WR 17	0.44	0.26	0
WR 18	1	0.14	0

Continuing to dig into receiver-share numbers, a more position-based look shows what to expect from each spot on the field.

Positional Stat Breakdown

	Catches	Yards	Touchdowns
WR 1	46	811	4
WR 2	44	633	3
WR 3	26	309	1
WR 4	16	232	2
WR 5	10	136	1
WR 6	7	102	1
WR 7	4	73	0
WR 8	3	41	0
WR 9	2	27	0
WR 10	2	20	0
WR 11	1	7	0
TE 1	18	224	2
TE 2	13	118	1
TE 3	9	84	1
TE 4	1	4	0
RB 1	15	126	0
RB 2	15	98	1
RB 3	3	24	0
RB 4	1	14	0

2025 Receiving Projections

Based on the data above, along with information I have picked up through the spring and fall camps, here is my 2025 Florida Gators receiving projections, along with where I expect each player to land in Florida’s pecking order.

	Receptions	Yards	TDs
J. Michael Sturdivant (WR1)	42	857	5
Eugene Wilson III (WR2)	47	799	5
Dallas Wilson (WR3)	29	453	3
Aidan Mizell (WR4)	17	275	2
Hayden Hansen (TE1)	19	257	2
Tank Hawkins (WR5)	13	179	1
Tony Livingston (TE2)	10	105	2
Vernell Brown III (WR6)	8	125	1
Jadan Baugh (RB1)	8	100	0
Ja'Kobi Jackson (RB2)	7	91	1
Naeshaun Montgomery (WR7)	5	69	0
Kahleil Jackson (WR8)	5	67	0
TJ Abrams (WR9)	5	47	0
Amir Jackson (TE3)	4	35	0
KD Daniels (RB3)	2	22	0
Muizz Tounkara (WR10)	2	19	0
Treyaun Webb (RB4)	2	12	0
Taylor Spierto (WR11)	1	10	0

Notably, J. Michael Sturdivant lands as Florida’s leading receiver over Eugene Wilson III, something I expect due to his deep-threat ability, impressive size and a similarity to last year's leading receiver Elijhah Badger. Wilson finishes with around the same production, yet fits in more in the Chimere Dike role from last season as a slot threat with outside versatility.

Dallas Wilson is my projected third most productive receiver over Aidan Mizell because of his impressive camp and game-changing talents, despite Mizell’s experience and proven ability to make plays in the SEC. I believe Wilson has one of the more impressive seasons of any freshman wide receiver on the year.

J. Michael Sturdivant could be the Florida Gators' leading receiver after transferring from UCLA. | Kyle Lander / Florida Gators on SI

Tank Hawkins and Vernell Brown III finish as wide receiver five and six, where I believe both make an impact as exciting and explosive playmakers. Both have impressed in camp.

Hayden Hansen and Tony Livingston combine for 29 catches, 362 yards and four touchdowns as the teams two main tight ends. Both have reportedly improved as pass catchers and I expect them both to be serviceable targets in the passing game.

Jadan Baugh takes a huge jump as a pass catcher after not much impact last year. While Ja’Kobi Jackson has already impressed as a receiver, Baugh has the background to make a bigger impact on the year after playing receiver at times in high school. Jackson still makes a large impact, as I expect both to become a very prominent duo out of the backfield this year.

Compared to the Country

With these numbers last season, Florida’s passing attack would have finished 22nd in the country in total passing yards and ninth in passing yards per game with 293.5, a huge jump from 91st in 2024. 22 touchdowns would have been tied for 36th most in the nation, while 226 completions would have been 49th. Their 15.6 yards per completion would have been the fifth best of any team in college football.

The Gators' projected leading receiver, Sturdivant, would have finished 61st in receiving yards amongst the nation and tied for sixth in the SEC with Alabama freshman Ryan Williams. Along with Florida’s second leading receiver in Wilson III, his five touchdowns would have been tied for 15th amongst conference opponents. As well, Sturdivant's projected 20.4 yards per catch would have finished seventh in the country, just behind his predecessor Badger.

Showing flashes of his potential last season, Aidan Mizell could sneakily be one of the Florida Gators more consistent receivers in 2025. | Kyle Lander / Florida Gators on SI

The freshman Wilson’s projected numbers would have finished as some of the best amongst freshmen last year, with his 29 catches finishing tied for 18th in the group. His 453 yards would have landed as 10th most of any first-year, finishing ahead of impressive SEC newcomers such as Texas’ Ryan Wingo and Auburn’s Malcolm Simmons.

Final Line

Florida’s passing attack should be explosive in 2025, making the Gators offense a well-rounded unit that can be one of the best in the country.

Led by veterans Sturdivant and Wilson III, with the compliment of exciting young players such as Wilson, Mizell and Brown III, the Gators' wide receiver room should be expected to be a deep rotation with little drop off from the starters to the eighth man.

At tight end, Hansen and Livingston are expected to become solid threats through the air and a safety valve for a young Lagway. Additionally, Baugh and Jackson should be more than check down options and true threats to make plays in the passing game.

Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh could have an impact in the passing attack this season. | Kyle Lander / Florida Gators on SI

While extremely high expectations, the Lagway era of Florida football should be extremely exciting and the Gators have the weapons to be one of the better offenses in college football. Though likely to somewhat lean on the run game and face another daunting schedule, I expect Florida to find their stride through the air and reach a new height offensively that we have yet to see under Billy Napier.

Production Outline

Receiving History

Compared to the Country

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