FSU Basketball Hits Road to Face Notre Dame After Two Straight Wins

Florida State Men's Basketball is currently riding a two-game winning streak after beating Cal and Stanford at home last week. Those cross-country games can be tough for road teams, and it proved to be that way for Stanford, but after Cal lost to the 'Noles, they went south and were able to upset Miami in a wild late rally.

For its next challenge, FSU will hit the road to play Notre Dame in a building where they've had some success in the past, but that was under a different regime. Can they keep the winning streak up on Saturday?

This game will be at 4 p.m. EST on the CW Network from the Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, Indiana.

Jan 24, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Micah Shrewsberry calls a play against the Boston College Eagles during the first half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Breakdown (11-12 Overall, 2-8 ACC)

Notre Dame is in its third season under head coach Micah Shrewsberry, whose tenure has been defined by two things: Markus Burton's health and a lack of depth.

Burton was electric as a freshman, averaging 17.5 PPG and 4.3 APG, which was also Shrewsberry's first season in South Bend. In his sophomore year, he missed 7 games, but he was available for most of ACC play, leading the conference in scoring.

This year, Burton's been banged up even more. He hasn't played since December 5th due to an ankle injury, and while he's "making steps" toward playing, he'll still be out for this game. And that's the biggest reason Notre Dame is 2-8 in ACC play this year.

They picked up some decent non-conference wins over TCU and Missouri, but the injury to Burton has wrecked their ACC play. They have only two wins in the conference schedule: a 47-40 slugfest against Stanford and a close home win over Boston College. Just like in years past, they aren't a very deep team, and that's costing them with Burton out.

There are four players you need to know with Burton out, and it starts with five-star true freshman Jalen Haralson, who has been a great slasher from the wing. He's averaging 15.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 2.7 APG this season, but nearly all of his work has come inside the arc. He's only averaging about one three-point attempt per game despite taking over 11 shots per game. He also does a good job of getting to the free-throw line, shooting more than 6 free throws per game.

Braeden Shrewsberry has been a great shooter throughout his college career, but he's taken a step up this year. On 6.5 3PA per game, he's sinking a career high 42% of them. He's still not great inside the arc, so the focus has to be running him off the line and making him a playmaker.

Cole Certa has taken a big jump this year, averaging 10.5 PPG, and he's been nearly perfect from the free-throw line this year at 91%, which is the best mark in the ACC. He's been inserted into the starting lineup recently.

Carson Towt has been a really great rebounder for someone who is all of 6'7", but he's a physical 250 pounds. He doesn't offer much as a scorer or a shot-blocker, but he can really rebound.

After that... I'm not too impressed. Brady Koehler has been intriguing since being inserted into the starting lineup, especially as a stretch four. Sir Mohammed hasn't taken the jump they expected. Garrett Sundra is a decent rebounder off the bench. Logan Imes has played in every game, but he doesn't do much for me.

Notre Dame is a good three-point shooting team and a really good defensive rebounding team. But they don't share the ball well, they don't force turnovers, and they don't defend well at the rim. However, they're forcing their opponents to shoot a lot from behind the arc, and holding them to a decent percentage while doing so.

Jan 31, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward Alex Steen (25) and guard Martin Somerville (1) react during the second half against the Stanford Cardinal at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (10-12 Overall, 3-6 ACC)

Florida State has started to find a formula that works for them in these last few games by slowing down, playing sound defense, and taking care of the ball on offense. They wanted to play uptempo, firing away from three, but that wasn't leading to any wins. This has been.

FSU is 3-1 in their last four games, and they're about six points away from having won five straight games. They've been playing much better basketball recently, especially on the road. They were able to beat Miami in Coral Gables, and they pushed SMU to the wire in Dallas. That'll be put to the test in South Bend.

The biggest reason for any success, as I've talked about a lot, is the consistency of Robert McCray V and Chauncey Wiggins. If those two are both rolling, FSU can win any game. If just one is, they can hang in, and if both struggle, it can become ugly quickly. It's no coincidence that those two are the only players who transferred in having played in the ACC previously.

The big thing to watch for now is if FSU can make the ACC Tournament. With how the last half of the ACC schedule sets up for them, there's really no reason for them not to get to Charlotte in March. Here are their last nine games and where each opponent sits in the ACC: at Notre Dame (17th), vs. Virginia (3rd), at Virginia Tech (9th), vs. Boston College (15th), at Clemson (2nd), vs. Miami (6th), at Georgia Tech (16th), at Pitt (18th), vs. SMU (10th). FSU is currently 13th, and I think just three more wins would lock them into playing in Charlotte for the first round of the ACC Tournament.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Lajae Jones
F: Thomas Bassong
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Notre Dame

G: Braeden Shrewsberry
G: Cole Certa
G: Jalen Haralson
F: Brady Koehler
F: Carson Towt

3 Keys to the Game

3-Point Differential

Notre Dame is a decent three-point shooting team, hitting 35.4% from three, and they're holding their opponents to 31.4%. Teams are getting a lot of points from three against them, though. 46.1% of field goal attempts against them are coming from three, which is one of the highest rates in the country. We've seen FSU settle for threes a lot this year, but with Notre Dame's lack of rim protection, the Seminoles should want to attack the basket.

Contending on the Glass

Despite not having much size, Notre Dame does a decent job on the glass, especially with defensive rebounding. Florida State wants to attack the glass, which they can do well with at times. They've been a much better rebounding team as of late. Their defensive style change allows them to save some energy and attack the glass better, which is going to matter in this game.

Take Care of the Basketball

Notre Dame does not force turnovers. They're only turning teams over at a 14.1% rate, which is one of the lowest in the country. Florida State usually has success when they don't turn the ball over, so this should fit right into its strengths. But don't let another team's weakness take focus away from what you should be doing.

Game Prediction

Notre Dame is favored by 2.5 points with an over/under of 152.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

This line is surprising, especially with Markus Burton out. Notre Dame has played teams like Virginia close at home, but they've won just two games in the last 55 days. At least FSU has shown some signs of life recently. I'll take the 'Noles in a lower-scoring game than anticipated.

Florida State 71 - Notre Dame 66

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