FSU Basketball Looking to Sweep West Coast Teams in Upcoming Matchup Against Stanford

Florida State got back in the win column on Wednesday in the ugliest possible win over Cal. They'll now look to sweep the West Coast ACC teams as Stanford will enter Tallahassee on Saturday evening.

Stanford, like Cal, has really struggled outside the state of California, going just 2-12 in true road games outside of California since joining the ACC. Is this where a win streak starts for Florida State?

This game will be at 6 p.m. EST on the ACC Network from the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Jan 14, 2026; Stanford, California, USA; Stanford Cardinal head coach Kyle Smith looks on against the North Carolina Tar Heels in the first half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Stanford Cardinal Breakdown (14-7 Overall, 3-5 ACC)

Stanford is in its second season under head coach Kyle Smith, who I think is a pretty good coach, but Stanford is a hard basketball school to win at. As with Cal, it's been difficult for Stanford to win away from the state of California, so these games, where they travel east, are a real toss-up. They gave Miami everything they could handle on Wednesday, leading most of the way, but they allowed the 'Canes to go on a 10-0 run near the end of the game, and that ended up being the difference-maker.

This will be a shorter breakdown because Stanford comes down to one thing: the play of star true freshman Ebuka Okorie. He was a blue-chip recruit, just barely, and he'd be the runaway for ACC Rookie of the Year if not for Cameron Boozer having a National Player of the Year type season. He's averaging 21.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 3.2 APG, and while he hasn't been the most efficient, especially from three, he's a threat to score from anywhere.

More attention is going to be on Okorie now that Chisom Okpara is out for the season with an injury. With him out, Okorie is now responsible for 32.5% of all shot attempts the team takes on average, which is an absurd amount. He's 9th in the country in free throws made and has a usage rate above 32%. That's a dangerous player to keep up with.

Jan 14, 2026; Stanford, California, USA; Stanford Cardinal guard Ebuka Okorie (1) celebrates a three point basket against the North Carolina Tar Heels in the second half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Their other wings are all good to great shooters. Benny Gealer is the only other healthy player averaging more than 9 PPG, as he's at 10.2 PPG, shooting 43.1% from three, and 75.7% of his shots come from behind the arc. Jeremy Dent-Smith has just become a starter, and he's knocking down 36.3% of his threes, while 63% of his shots are triples. Ryan Agarwal isn't much different, shooting 41.2% from three, with 52.7% of his shots being threes.

Stanford doesn't really have a center, so they've played AJ Rohosy there. He can't stretch the floor, he isn't a great shot-blocker, and he's an average rebounder (better on the offensive glass than defensive). Donavin Young has started with Okpara out, but he's been scoreless in 6 of the 9 games he's appeared in this year.

Stanford does a good job taking care of the ball, and they don't allow their opponents to shoot many threes, which can be a good formula to win. However, they really struggle to score inside the arc, and they foul a lot.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (9-12 Overall, 2-6 ACC)

I've never seen a game quite like the one that Florida State won on Wednesday against Cal. They shot just 36.5% from the floor, 21.4% from three, and 11/21 from the free-throw line and still won the game. For reference, there have only been eight instances in the last 22 years where a team won despite shooting splits of less than 37% from the floor, 22% from three, and 53% from the free-throw line with more than 25 three-point attempts and more than 20 free-throw attempts. And three of those eight instances went to overtime. It's just not something often seen in college basketball, especially when you consider how many games there are.

That being said, they'll have to play much better in this game. Not that Stanford is a better team, but you can't expect to win games that way often. FSU's defensive effort should be lauded, but the offense has to be better.

It starts with Robert McCray V, something I've been saying for all of ACC play. He dealt with foul trouble in the second half, which is a big reason why Cal came back into the game, and he has to be great. He can't just be okay in games and expect to come away with wins. Luckily, Chauncey Wiggins had one of his better games in a Florida State uniform, and that's a big reason FSU won this game.

McCray kept the turnovers down, which is important to this offense, but they also have to be much better at finishing shots. And shooting free throws. And everything else on offense.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Lajae Jones
F: Thomas Bassong
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Stanford

G: Jeremy Dent-Smith
G: Ebuka Okorie
G: Ryan Agarwal
F: Donavin Young
F: AJ Rohosy

3 Keys to the Game

Defend Without Fouling

Florida State has been better about not fouling recently, for the most part. They'll have to be even better about it in this game, as Stanford has one of the higher free throw rates in the country. This mainly applies to Ebuka Okorie, who we'll talk more about later, especially since Chisom Okpara (averaging 6.8 FTA per game) is out for the season. All of Stanford's losses have come when they have a free-throw rate below 50%, and FSU would like to keep it below 30%. Go the other way, and Stanford is 7-0 in games where they have an FTR above 50%, including an upset win over Louisville.

Don't Settle For Threes

This may be a tall ask for Florida State, who are 11th in three-point rate. Stanford's defense is designed not to allow threes, as they're top 15 in opponent three-point rate. And if teams are firing away from them, Stanford is going to contest those shots. They don't have a shot-blocker, so FSU needs to get to the rim.

Head of the Snake: Ebuka Okorie

Ebuka Okorie probably isn't a big fan of Cameron Boozer, because otherwise, Okorie would be running away with rookie of the year in the ACC. He's been outstanding, averaging 21.5 PPG, and with Chisom Okpara out, all of the focus is going to be on him. However, if Florida State can keep him below 20 points, they'll give themselves a great chance to win. In games where he's scored fewer than 20 points, Stanford is 2-7. When he scores more than 20, Stanford is a perfect 10-0.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 2.5 points with an over/under of 152.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I'm going to say very similar things to this game as I did for the Cal game, because a lot of it applies. These cross-country games are hard for teams; different time zones, different weather, different environments... it all adds up. I think Florida State gets another much-needed win here.

Florida State 70, Stanford 66

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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