FSU Basketball Looking for First ACC Home Win of Season Against Cal Golden Bears

Florida State may only be 1-6 in ACC play, but they definitely seem to have figured some things out. They've gone on the road to beat Miami, gave SMU a scare on Saturday, and are generally in much tighter games. They just have to start turning those tighter games into wins.

Their next chance comes on Wednesday night, as they'll host the two California teams this week, starting with the Cal Golden Bears, who are 10 days removed from beating UNC at home. They're talented, but traveling East has not been a winning formula for the California teams, especially Cal. They're 1-10 in ACC road games outside the state since joining the league. Expand it to include non-conference, and they're 1-13 in true road games outside the state of California since the start of the 2024-25 season.

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on the ACC Network from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Jan 17, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears head coach Mark Madsen yells during the first half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Cal Golden Bears Breakdown (15-5 Overall, 3-4 ACC)

Cal is in its third season under head coach Mark Madsen, and he's still looking for his first official winning season with the Golden Bears. Unless they lose every game the rest of the season, they should get there. This is the most talented team he's had, but they've only played four true road games out of 20 this year, and they're 1-3 in such games. And that one road win was against Stanford, which is only about 40 miles away.

This will be a new test, though. Traveling to Florida from California is a long trip, especially when this game will be played at 4 p.m. for their internal clocks, and that's why they've struggled making this adjustment to the ACC.

Cal has picked up a couple of quality wins in the state, though. They beat UCLA in a somewhat neutral site game in San Francisco, and beating UNC at home is admirable. But outside of that, I'm not as convinced they're as good as their 15-5 record may indicate.

For once, they're getting smoked on the glass this year. They're only coming down with 26.5% of offensive rebound chances, which is one of the lowest marks in the country. Meanwhile, they're giving up an offensive rebound rate on the other end of 31.9%. Those are both bad marks. They're also allowing a lot of shots near or at the rim.

They don't shoot a ton of threes or free throws, but they are making them. Cal is shooting 36.5% from three and 79.2% on free throws, both of which are among the nation's leaders. And on the other side, they're defending the three well (opponents are shooting 30.1%), and teams just can't make free throws against them (67.9%). That's what happens when 85% of your games are within driving distance of campus.

However, they do have a decent roster. Leading the way is Dai Dai Ames, who was the fourth-leading scorer for a bad Virginia team last year. But he's having a much better year this time around, averaging 17.1 PPG and 2.5 APG. He's still not a great playmaker, but his scoring has taken a massive step forward. His three-point shooting is efficient at 42.4%, but the majority of his shots are coming inside the arc. His inside scoring has been the biggest jump he's taken, as he's attempting twice as many twos as last year, and his efficiency has actually gone up.

Justin Pippen is his backcourt mate, and he's the one responsible for most of the playmaking, but he's a good scorer as well, averaging 14.8 PPG and 4.2 APG. He's taking about half his shots from three, and he's hitting them at a 36.1% rate, but he is a poor shooter inside the arc.

John Camden has blossomed into the annoying, lethal shooter that Virginia Tech always thought he'd be, but he had to take a detour through Delaware first, where he had a great season. He's shooting 40.6% from three and is taking twice as many shots from deep as he is inside the arc. He's one shooter you really have to worry about.

Chris Bell was a great shooter at Syracuse, but that shooting hasn't followed him over to the West Coast. However, he does get to the free-throw line somewhat frequently, which is why he's averaging 12.8 PPG. You still have to respect him as a shooter since he takes a decent amount of them from behind the line, but you don't want him to initiate contact and get to the line where he's an 88.2% shooter.

Lee Dort is their last starter at center, and he's averaging a solid 8.3 PPG and 7.7 RPG. He's a great defensive rebounder, but that's pretty much his whole role. He's only taking five shots per game. However, he will be out for this game due to a lower leg injury. Without him, they have no depth down low. I'd expect the Serbian Milos Ilic to start in his place, who is averaging just 2.8 PPG and 3.5 RPG.

No one they have coming off the bench concerns me all that much. DJ Campbell was somewhat productive for them last year, but he's been playing just about 10 minutes per game as he returns from an injury. They need a spark from the bench, and with Rytis Petraitis out for the season due to surgery, Campbell is their best bet.

Jan 13, 2026; Syracuse, New York, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Luke Loucks looks on prior to the game against the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (8-12 Overall, 1-6 ACC)

It's not showing up in the win column just yet, but Florida State is absolutely turning a corner. They've settled down on defense, and that's allowing them to be a little more efficient on offense. The zone defense they've started to turn to more has allowed them to conserve some energy while still being difficult to score against, at times. Their defensive rating of 103.6 in their last three games, while still not the best, is well below their season average of 108.1.

But, as always, this team goes as Robert McCray V goes. With how often he has the ball in his hands, if he's having a good game, FSU is having a good game. But they can't win without other players helping him.

Lajae Jones finally bounced back with a big game against SMU. He had been struggling really ever since he went 10/21 from three against Georgia Southern way back on November 21st. He was solid against Syracuse two weeks ago, but he was legitimately great against SMU, hitting shots in rhythm and with confidence. He's also been much better on the glass as of late, averaging 10.3 RPG in the last three games. Luke Loucks has challenged his team to be better rebounders, and no one has taken that to heart more than Jones.

Chauncey Wiggins is the other one who needs to consistently have big games. He struggled against SMU mostly due to foul trouble. But he can be a real difference maker when he's playing at a high level like he was against Duke and Wake Forest. But he can have some really rough games. Hopefully, he bounces back in this one.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Lajae Jones
F: Thomas Bassong
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Cal

G: Dai Dai Ames
G: Justin Pippen
F: Chris Bell
F: John Camden
F: Milos Ilic

3 Keys to the Game

Attack the Interior With Force

All five of Cal's losses have come when their opponent shoots better than 55% on twos. Florida State, for the season, has been hovering around 53.6% on two-pointers, but they haven't taken a lot of them until recently. Cal does have the size advantage down low, but players like Robert McCray V are going to have to finish through contact and convert those chances inside the arc.

Defend Without Fouling

Cal doesn't go the extra mile to get to the free-throw line, but they convert their chances when they get there. They're shooting 79.2% from the stripe as a team, which is one of the best marks nationally. For reference, Florida State only has two PLAYERS shooting above that line.

FSU struggled with fouls earlier in the year, but they've settled back down in the last few weeks due to their defensive changes. They were committing an average of 20.6 fouls per game, which led to an average of 24.5 free throws per game for their opponent in non-conference play. Since ACC play started, they're averaging 17.6 fouls per game, leading to 19 free throws per game. And they're getting better about it every week.

Robert McCray's Efficiency

Florida State is going to give itself a great chance to win in any game where McCray is productive, and he doesn't turn the ball over. A big reason they were competing down the wire with SMU is that he only turned it over twice. If they can live in the 2-3 turnover range for him, they're going to win more games than they have been.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 2.5 points with an over/under of 154.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

It's always tough for these California teams to travel East, and I don't think that's going to be any different here. FSU HAS to win one of these two games against Cal or Stanford to keep hopes alive for making the ACC Tournament, but there's no reason they can't win both. Cal is the tougher of the two teams, but I like the way FSU is playing recently, so I think they get a close win here.

Florida State 76, Cal 74

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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