FSU Basketball, Riding 3-Game Winning Streak, to Host ACC Power Virginia

Florida State is riding a three-game win streak, matching its longest of the year. That will be put to the test on Tuesday, as the Virginia Cavaliers will be entering the Tucker Center, who are one of the best teams in the ACC, riding a four-game winning streak.

This will be a battle of first-year head coaches with very different resources. And that could make for an interesting battle.

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ESPNU from the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Jan 13, 2026; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Ryan Odom calls out instructions during the first half against the Louisville Cardinals at KFC Yum! Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

#15 Virginia Cavaliers Breakdown (20-3 Overall, 9-2 ACC)

Virginia is in year one under Ryan Odom, who led VCU to the NCAA Tournament last year. Oddly enough, for those that don't know, he was the head coach at UMBC when they upset Virginia in the NCAA Tournament for the first 16/1 upset ever. Crazy how everything comes full circle.

Odom put together a squad for his first year in Charlottesville. It's an impressive team with depth, experienced talent, and talented overseas production that has blended together perfectly. And they've put together an impressive resume, beating Texas, Louisville, SMU, and NC State. They've had a few lapses in ACC play, including a triple overtime loss to Virginia Tech, a narrow double overtime win against Notre Dame, and a home loss to UNC, who has found footing recently.

They've had a much easier stretch recently, beating Notre Dame, Pitt, Boston College, and Syracuse in this four-game win streak. Those teams are a combined 10-33 in ACC play this year. All of those games were closer than they needed to be, outside of the Pitt game. But don't get it twisted, this is a good basketball team.

It starts with Belgian import Thijs De Ridder, who is averaging 16.4 PPG and 6.5 RPG. He's able to space from three, but he does most of his work on the inside, and he's a tenacious rebounder. He handles the ball well for his size, and he is not afraid of physicality whatsoever. Chauncey Wiggins is going to have his work cut out for him this game, going against De Ridder.

Jan 27, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Virginia Cavaliers forward Thijs de Ridder (28) drives to the basket against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Malik Thomas is the best scoring threat from the wing. He's taking over five threes per game, and even if he's shooting 33.6% from deep, he still has to be respected. The former San Francisco product has been a great shooter throughout his career, and he's averaging 12.6 PPG. He's also capable of getting downhill when he needs it, and is a disappointing rebounder for his size with 4.0 per game.

Sam Lewis is a talented three-point shooter who came over from Toledo, averaging 10.7 PPG while shooting 40.4% from three. He's dialed back his 2-point production since his time at Toledo, but he's still more than capable of getting downhill.

Chance Mallory is a true freshman averaging 10.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.6 APG, and 2.0 SPG off the bench. He's arguably been better than their starter, who we'll talk about later. Mallory is going to be a great player for them in the future, and he already is a good one.

Jacari White is someone Florida State looked at in the transfer portal, and for good reason. The former North Dakota State product is averaging 8.1 PPG while shooting a blistering 43.4% from three off the bench.

Starting center Johann Grünloh is another first-year college player, coming in from Germany, and he's been a beast on the boards, averaging 7.9 PPG and 6.0 RPG. He's in the top 60 nationally in offensive rebound rate, which will really test FSU's rebounding.

Ugonna Onyenso has also been a rebounding machine off the bench, averaging 6.6 PPG and 4.7 RPG.

Dallin Hall is the starting point guard, and he's just a steady playmaker more than a scorer, averaging 5.3 PPG and 4.2 APG. This is how he was at BYU, too, but he was at least able to average 9.0 PPG as a sophomore two years ago, but he just hasn't shown that scoring punch.

This is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, but they're great metrically almost everywhere. The easiest thing to do is just assume they're good at everything because they mostly are: 35.7% from three (and they take a lot of them), 59.6% assist rate, 40.2% offensive rebound rate, they keep teams away from the basket, they're top ten in block rate, and they force teams to miss a lot of shots.

However, they are a weirdly poor free-throw shooting team. Dallin Hall is the only one shooting above 80%, but De Ridder and Grünloh are under 70%, and Thomas is just above it.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (11-12 Overall, 4-6 ACC)

Dec 6, 2025; Houston, TX, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward Alier Maluk (12) reacts after a play during the first half against the Houston Cougars at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

A three-game ACC winning streak. It has been more than two years since we've been able to say that (they won five in a row to start January in 2024). What a time to be alive.

That'll be put to the test in this game. I'm not even convinced that if you took the best players from the teams FSU has faced in this winning streak, you'd make a better team than Virginia is right now. That isn't to say they're not gettable, because they are, but it's going to take a nearly perfect game.

The last win against Notre Dame featured one of the best statistical anomalies you'll ever see. Alier Maluk scored 2 points without officially playing in the game. If you look at the box score, you will not see Maluk. He was put into the game while Notre Dame was shooting free throws, which is a dead-ball situation. He was fouled before the ball could be inbounded. He then made both free throws to put FSU up by three with 9 seconds to go, then was subbed out immediately after. No official playing time, and he scored the two biggest points of the game. Legend.

But that last game against Notre Dame did not need to be as close as it got. It was a weird game from Robert McCray V, who had 15 points, but his only made field goals were threes, and he fouled out at the end. He'll need to play much better moving forward. Chauncey Wiggins was there to carry the torch, falling just one point shy of tying his career-high, which he just set in the game before. Wiggins is playing the best basketball of his college career in these last three games. Will it keep up?

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Lajae Jones
F: Thomas Bassong
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Virginia

G: Dallin Hall
G: Malik Thomas
G: Sam Lewis
F: Thijs De Ridder
C: Johann Grünloh

3 Keys to the Game

Three-Point Differential

Virginia is a good three-point shooting team that doesn't allow their opponents to shoot well. That's a strong combination. For Florida State to have a chance, they're going to have to flip that. FSU is coming off a strong shooting game against Notre Dame with 15 made threes; they're probably going to need to make at least 13.

Defensive Rebounding

Virginia is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, bringing down 40.2% of their misses. That'll happen when a team has three players inside the top 325 in the nation in offensive rebounding rate: Thjis De Ridder, Johann Grünloh, and Ugonna Onyenso.

Florida State hasn't exactly been the greatest defensive rebounding team, but they have shown a lot more effort in these last five games, and a lot of rebounding comes down to effort. But this will be a much different test against a much better frontcourt than they've played recently.

Chauncey Wiggins and Robert McCray V Legacy Games

Florida State isn't beating a team as good as Virginia without some impressive performances from their two best players: Chauncey Wiggins and Robert McCray V. I was as critical as anyone of Wiggins early in the season and throughout his tenure at Clemson, but he's played great basketball recently. In his last three games, he's averaging 21 PPG and 3.7 RPG while going 12/25 from three. It's no coincidence that FSU won those games.

And then there's McCray. He's the driving force of this offensive engine, but he can play a little recklessly, especially on defense. The Notre Dame game was an odd one from him, to say the least, and I expect a bounce-back from him. They're going to need it.

Game Prediction

Virginia is favored by 8.5 points over Florida State with an over/under of 151.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I like the way Florida State has played in the last few weeks, and Virginia seems due for a bad loss. I don't think that's going to come in this game, though. Virginia's frontcourt is great, and FSU's center play has easily been the biggest weakness this season. The Cavs should win, but I could see the 'Noles putting up a strong fight in this one.

Virginia 71, Florida State 61

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