Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Virginia Cavaliers

Two more regular-season games remain in the regular-season tenure of Leonard Hamilton, and this will be his last true road game (barring an NIT appearance). It'll come against the Virginia Cavaliers in a building where Coach Hamilton is 5-10.

But Virginia isn't the same Virginia. Tony Bennett shockingly stepped down before the season, and they've been reeling since. They have a chance to finish below .500 for the first time since Bennett's first season in 2009-2010. A few things will make this a tricky game for the Seminoles, though.

This game will be at 9 p.m. EST on the ACC Network, live from John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia.

Virginia Cavaliers Breakdown (14-15 Overall, 7-11 ACC)

Virginia Cavaliers guard Isaac McKneely (11) shoots the ball over Virginia Tech Hokies guard Ben Hammond (11) in the first half at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Emily Morgan-Imagn Images | Emily Morgan-Imagn Images

Some things about this Virginia team are still classic Virginia: slow tempo, efficient three-point shooting, low free-throw rate, and high assist rate.

They're actually playing at the second-fastest tempo they've played at over the last decade, but they're still averaging just a hair over 61 possessions per game, well below the national average of 67.5 possessions per game. But Virginia is also shooting 37.7% from three, has the second-highest assist rate in the country, and hardly gets to the free-throw line. That could change against an FSU team that fouls a lot, but it is worth noting.

Virginia mainly runs an eight-man rotation: Isaac McKneely (14.4 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.8 RPG), Elijah Saunders (10.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG), Andrew Rohde (9.4 PPG, 4.4 APG, 2.9 RPG), Dai Dai Ames (8.5 PPG, 2.0 APG), Jacob Cofie (7.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG), Blake Buchanan (5.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG), Taine Murray (4.4 PPG), and Anthony Robinson (3.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG). Sometimes, Ishan Sharma gets some burn, but I'm not too worried about him. This team was supposed to have former Seminole Jalen Warley, but after Bennett resigned, he transferred to Gonzaga and redshirted this season.

McKneely, Saunders, Rohde, Ames, and Murray are all elite shooters. The five of them are shooting a combined 204/499 (40.9%) from three-point range. McKneely is the leader in that, launching 7.5 3PA per game, but he's also sinking them at a league-best 42.4%. 67.2% of his made baskets this season have come from behind the line, and he torched the Seminoles last season. He's someone that FSU has to keep track of at all times.

Saunders, Buchanan, and Cofie are a solid rebounding trio, and they do a good job of controlling the defensive glass. But overall, Virginia's defense isn't nearly as strong as it's been in years past. Teams are shooting above 50% on two and above 34% on threes against them, and Virginia is forcing a very low turnover rate. Florida State still has to be strong on drives, but they don't have the perimeter defenders they had when players like Trey Murphy III and De'Andre Hunter roamed around the arc.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (16-13 Overall, 7-11 ACC)

Duke Blue Devils fans react to Florida State Seminoles guard Jamir Watkins (1) during the first half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Florida State's performance against Duke on Saturday was not pretty, and we can leave it at that. Not having Malique Ewin on the inside made rebounding an issue; Alier Maluk picking up two fouls in the first few minutes made it basically impossible to keep Duke off the glass. They actually held Duke to their third-worst three-point shooting performance of the season, but FSU couldn't force any turnovers, and Duke shot 28/34 from the stripe. That's a recipe for disaster.

They need Ewin back for this Virginia game, and there is a chance he plays; he wasn't wearing a protective boot on Saturday for the time I saw him at Duke and was on the bench the entire game. Coach Hamilton said after the Duke game that Ewin just wasn't quite ready enough to play against Duke, but maybe that changes for Virginia. His passing from the post could be extremely valuable against Virginia's defense.

The good news is Jerry Deng is shooting the ball at a high level. Over his last four games, Deng is shooting 10/19 from deep and has been the team's second-leading scorer against UNC and Duke in a bench role. This team has desperately needed shooting, and he has been the team's best over the last few weeks.

Projected Starters

Virginia

G: Dai Dai Ames
G: Isaac McKneely
G: Andrew Rohde
F: Elijah Saunders
F: Blake Buchanan

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin/Alier Maluk

Keys to the Game

Get to the Free-Throw Line

Virginia games generally don't feature a lot of free throws. They're one of the worst teams in the country in terms of free throw rate, but they also don't send their opponents there very often. They've only had 11 games where their opponents shot at least 20 free throws, while FSU has only had nine games where their opponent didn't attempt at least 20 free throws.

But the Seminoles have mostly had success when they can get to the free-throw line, and Virginia hasn't had success when they foul. In those 11 games where Virginia's opponents shoot at least 20 free throws, they're 3-8.

Speed the Game Up

Virginia, as usual, has been one of the slowest teams in the country. They've only had four games with 65 or more possessions, while Florida State has only had four games with 65 or fewer possessions. FSU wants to play fast, and Virginia wants to play slow. Whoever gets their way will likely win.

In games where the 'Noles have played fewer than 70 possessions, they're 3-8. In games where Virginia has played more than 60 possessions, they're 7-14. FSU needs to speed this game up.

3-Point Defense

Virginia has been one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country this season, shooting 37.7% from deep. It's the best shooting team they've had since they won the title in 2019. Virginia is 4-11 in games where they've shot under 40% from three, that has to be the goal for Florida State.

If they want to take it a step further, UVA is 3-7 when Isaac McKneely makes two or fewer three-pointers. He's an elite shooter, getting 67.2% of his made field goals from behind the arc. He lit FSU up last season for 29 points on 5/7 three-point shooting. That can't happen again this time around.

Game Prediction

Virginia is favored by 4.5 points with an over/under of 137.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Only two games remain in Leonard Hamilton's regular season tenure at Florida State, and the 'Noles are coming off a beatdown in Durham against Duke. I think they'll come out with some energy and beat the Cavs in Charlottesville.

Florida State 66, Virginia 60

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