Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Florida State picked up their first signature win of the season on Wednesday night, getting an 82-70 victory in a fiery contest against the Pitt Panthers. The schedule now opens up a little, and if FSU wants any chance to get into the bubble, they can't afford any losses over the next few weeks.
It starts on Saturday with a matchup against a short-handed Georgia Tech squad coming off a home loss to Clemson. They have just one win over a top-200 KenPom team, a home win against Notre Dame, playing without its best player, Markus Burton.
This is a noon tip in the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida, on ESPNU.
READ MORE: FSU Basketball Picks Up Signature Home Win, Beats Pitt 82-70
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Breakdown (8-10 Overall, 2-5 ACC)
Damon Stoudamire's second season with Georgia Tech hasn't gone as he likely expected it to. They were a sneaky team last year, capable of beating Duke and UNC at home but also capable of losing to Louisville and UMass-Lowell. It's been just as shaky this season, just without the quality wins to match the bad losses.
The Yellow Jackets lost to North Florida in non-conference play and are losing by an average of 13.8 PPG in their five ACC losses. They do have two ACC wins: one against a Markus Burton-less Notre Dame team and the other against Boston College, which isn't even really an ACC-caliber team right now.
Injuries have worn this team down. Kowacie Reeves hasn't played since November 27th with an ankle injury, leading scorer Lance Terry missed their last game with a wrist injury (his status is TBD), Luke O'Brien has been out since December 18th with a foot injury, reserve big Doryan Onwuchekwa hasn't played since December 15th due to personal reasons, and freshman guard Jaeden Mustaf hurt his foot on Tuesday against Clemson and was seen in a boot this week. That's over 40 PPG in scoring production, whose status is at least up in the air for this game. I wouldn't expect Reeves or O'Brien to be ready for this game, Terry and Mustaf are unknown as of now.
Whether Terry or not plays could be a deciding factor in this game. He's their leading scorer at 15.4 PPG and shooting nearly 40% from three-point range. He's played against the Seminoles three times in his career and has scored a combined 49 points, including a 23-point outing in Tallahassee in the 2020-21 season.
If Terry can't go, their leading scorer is likely to be Javian McCollum. The Oklahoma transfer is averaging 12.4 PPG and 3.5 APG while shooting 45.5% from the floor and 39.7% from three. He's been an efficient second scorer alongside Terry but didn't have the greatest showing against Clemson without him, shooting just 3/11 from the floor with a few turnovers.
Baye Ndongo made the All-ACC Freshman Team last season and has taken the smallest step back in production. He's still averaging 12 PPG and 7.2 RPG, but his efficiency hasn't improved, and he's fouling more. He's an undersized center, and it'll be interesting to see if he can keep up with Malique Ewin.
Nait George is their point guard, leading the ACC in assists at 6.1 per game. He's an okay but inefficient scorer at 10.4 PPG on 37.5% shooting from the floor. FSU would prefer to make him a scorer.
Duncan Powell has stepped up in the last month, averaging 10.7 PPG while shooting 42.3% from three over GT's last seven games, including a 21-point outing against Notre Dame. He's a physical player with some size and could give FSU's interior defense some issues.
If Jaeden Mustaf plays, he's been a productive scorer off the bench as a freshman, scoring 9.1 PPG. FSU recruited him heavily out of high school, so they're very familiar with his game.
Ibrahim Souare has started games out of necessity, but he doesn't do a whole lot besides eating up space and rebounding. The same goes for Ryan Mutombo, the son of Dikembe Mutombo and cousin of former Seminole Mfiondu Kabengele. That'll be everyone you could see play major minutes.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (12-5 Overall, 3-3 ACC)
Words can't describe how important Wednesday's win over Pitt was for FSU. Although Pitt has fallen to 31st, so it's slid from a Q1 win to a Q2 win, the Seminoles needed to prove they could beat some of the top teams in the conference. And they did it in a dominating fashion.
Pitt tried to make the game interesting, getting an improbable 17 points off the bench from Jorge Diaz Graham. He had scored 17 points in his previous four games combined, so FSU being able to survive that is a great sign.
The squabble following the game probably wasn't what either side wanted, but it also shows that this team isn't afraid to back down from anything or anyone. Sometimes, you need that in a team, one that has a little edge to it. Big dogs bark, and they had reason to bark on Wednesday.
Jamir Watkins and Malique Ewin each strengthened their cases for All-ACC campaigns. It's unlikely they'll make the First Team because of biased ACC voters, but they both deserve to be represented there at the end of the season. There are still two months left in the season, but Ewin is only getting better with every game, and Jamir is Jamir. They are as talented of players as the Seminoles have had in recent memory.
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Projected Starters
Florida State
G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin
Georgia Tech
G: Naithan George
G: Javian McCollum
F: Duncan Powell
F: Ibrahim Souare
F: Baye Ndongo
Keys to the Game
Don't Be Scared of Physicality
Georgia Tech will likely be starting a bigger lineup of Duncan Powell, Ibrahim Souare, and Baye Ndongo due to injuries, which is a very physical frontcourt. Malique Ewin has struggled at times against physical teams, but he also has the speed and quickness to be a matchup nightmare for just about anyone.
Teams have also been walling off against Jamir Watkins to try and keep him out of the paint. He's never been scared of physicality, but it'd go an extra mile here. With that physicality has to come some pace, too. Georgia Tech is a thin team due to injuries, and Florida State should look to race up and down the floor.
Interior Defense
Georgia Tech thrives in the interior. When they shoot better than 50% inside the arc, they're 7-0, and when they shoot 50% or worse, they're 1-10, with the one win coming against Texas Southern. Meanwhile, Florida State is 2-5 when they allow teams to shoot 50% or better inside the arc. This is going to be the biggest emphasis for both teams heading into this game.
But it doesn't just top there; the Seminoles have to clean up on the defensive glass. Again, Georgia Tech is 7-0 when they snag more than 32% of offensive rebounds and 1-10 when they grab fewer than 32% (the one win was over Boston College). If FSU plays solid interior defense and finishes possessions with a rebound, it'll be hard for the Yellow Jackets to find any consistent offense.
Third Scorer Stepping Up
This is a key for FSU for the rest of the season, not just this game. They really need a third scorer to step up consistently. They've found the most success in ACC play when a third scorer has produced alongside Jamir Watkins and Malique Ewin. This is a game that Daquan Davis could find some success in, as GT's guards have been depleted with injury.
Game Prediction
Florida State opened as favorites by 8.5 points with an over/under of 147.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
Georgia Tech is dealing with too many injuries, and they weren't playing that well to begin with. Even if FSU typically starts slow in noon games, the Seminoles should be able to handle this one by a decent margin.
Florida State 73, Georgia Tech 59
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