ESPN Believes This One Game Could Define FSU Football's 2026 Season

The Florida State Seminoles are entering a pivotal season as head coach Mike Norvell begins his seventh year at the helm. After posting 2–10 and 5–7 records over the past two seasons, FSU continues to undergo staff and roster overhauls. Still, many view 2026 as a make-or-break year for Norvell.

College football isn’t a teeter-totter. It’s momentum layered on momentum. The higher you climb, the harder gravity pulls the other way. That’s seemingly what has happened to the Seminoles in the new world of college athletics.

Philosophy aside, ESPN believes one game could reveal which direction Florida State is truly headed in 2026 and beyond.

Florida State at. Miami (October 17)

Oct 4, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Micahi Danzy (19) runs against Miami Hurricanes linebacker Chase Smith (41) during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The Seminoles will travel to Coral Gables on October 17, looking to end a two-year losing streak to the Hurricanes. Last season, No. 3 Miami defeated No. 18 Florida State 28–22. When the teams meet again, a Seminole victory could validate FSU’s trajectory at a critical point in the season.

"We cannot choose Alabama as the season-defining game because winning the opener against the Tide last year should have defined the season," ESPN's Andrea Adelson wrote.

The Hurricanes Present Clear Test for the Seminoles in 2026

Oct 4, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell during the first half against the Miami Hurricanes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

To Adelson's point, FSU's lone marquee victory over the Crimson Tide last year lost a lot of its allure after following it up with a 5-7 finish. Another win in 2026 to finish their home-and-home series shouldn't be the ultimate measuring stick. Florida State already faces a gauntlet before taking on the Hurricanes, with ACC games against SMU, Virginia, and Louisville being tests in their own right for the Seminoles.

"Instead, the Seminoles went 5-7," Adelson continued. "The Miami game comes at a critical point in the schedule as Florida State opens ACC play against SMU on Labor Day, then plays Virginia and at Louisville before Miami. The rival Hurricanes just played for a national title. There is no better way to define a season than getting a win here."

While both teams will be featuring new quarterbacks, with Florida State's Ashton Daniels and Miami's Darian Mensah being the presumed starters heading into the matchup, a lot could change.

Florida State managed to hang on to some key players on both sides of the ball and brought in the No. 27 transfer class. Miami lost a lot of talent but held on to standout freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney and brought the No. 4 transfer haul.

A win against Miami would re-solidify FSU’s legitimacy within the ACC race and validate early-season momentum. A mediocre lead-up to the rival rematch would only reinforce the program's recent inconsistency.