FSU Football Considered Colossal Underdog Before No. 3 Miami Hurricanes Matchup

The Seminoles are nearly three-touchdown road underdogs ahead of their second straight game outside of Tallahassee.

Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell watches the replay. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the New Mexico State Aggies 34-17 at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Florida State Seminoles continue their conference slate in the middle of October. This one means a little bit more, with Florida State traveling to Hard Rock Stadium to face the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes.

The annual meeting between the Seminoles and Hurricanes is one of the fiercest and most passionate rivalries in the history of the sport. However, Miami holds a 37-33 all-time lead, winning two straight games against Florida State.

Anything can happen in these types of contests, but the two programs seem to be on different trajectories. Miami is on track to make the College Football Playoff for the second straight year, while Florida State might finally move on from Mike Norvell with an ugly loss.

READ MORE: Mike Norvell's Responds to Chuck Kennon’s Dismissal From FSU Football

Florida State is coming off its most disappointing outing of the season, falling 44-20 to Louisville. The Seminoles held a 14-0 lead, but were outscored 44-6 over the final three quarters, quitting well before the final whistle.

Miami had the benefit of a BYE week before hosting FSU. The Hurricanes blew out Clemson on the road in Week 5.

FSU A Big Road Underdog Against Miami

Florida State Seminoles quarterback Ashton Daniels (14) runs for a gain against Louisville during ACC college football at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky. Oct. 9, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

According to FanDuel, Florida State is expected to be dominated by Miami. The Seminoles are a +21.5-point underdog on the sportsbook, with the Over/Under set at 56.5 points. The Hurricanes are a -1800 favorite on the MoneyLine, compared to FSU's +920.

The Seminoles are 2-4 against the spread this season. They failed to cover against New Mexico State, SMU, Central Arkansas, and Louisville.

Miami built a 28-3 lead last season in Tallahassee. Though Florida State tried to rally late, the Seminoles still fell 28-22. Back in 2024, the Hurricanes controlled the game in a 36-14 win.

Norvell is 3-3 against the Hurricanes during his time at Florida State. The Seminoles have lost six consecutive games to primary rivals (Clemson, Florida, Miami).

While Florida State has dropped six of the last nine meetings, the program does hold a 21-19 advantage on the road in the series.

Florida State and Miami will match up on Saturday, October 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Sign up for our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook, X, and Instagram for the latest news.