What Does ESPN's FPI Say About Georgia Tech's Matchup Against Virginia Tech?

Georgia Tech given nearly an 80% chance of winning on Saturday

Sep 20, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) celebrates after a victory over the Temple Owls at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech is once again a huge favorite at home. The lines in Las Vegas are expecting the Yellow Jackets to advance to 6-0 on the season.

ESPN follows that same feeling and heavily favors the Yellow Jackets at home, giving them a 79.8% chance of winning. Virginia Tech is given just a 20.2% chance of winning on the Flats. While Georgia Tech has continued to see the national spotlight with being ranked No. 13 this season, ESPN FPI has continued to drop the Yellow Jackets in its rankings. Before their game against Wake Forest, they were ranked as a top 30 team. With Virginia Tech coming up Saturday, the Yellow Jackets are ranked as the No. 42 overall team. Their chance to win the conference sits at just 5.8%. Their chances to make the College Football Playoff have increased from 0.5% to 9.8% seeing a good boost after the bye week.

Virginia Tech Has Had A Bump Season

Oct 4, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) runs toward the sideline with the ball against Wake Forest Demon Deacons linebacker Aiden Hall (21) during the fourth quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech has had a tumultuous season thus far, already getting rid of their former head coach, Brent Pry, and moving to Phillip Montgomery, who was appointed interim on September 14th. His most notable coaching experience came from 2015-2022 when he coached the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. He led Tulsa to four bowl appearances and an American Conference Championship appearance. He finished with a 43-53 overall record during his eight years with the team. Since he had taken over, the Hokies are 2-1, picking up wins over Wofford and NC State. Their offense is playing at a much better level, and Virginia Tech is a more competitive team.

Georgia Tech will look to handle business again on Saturday and stay on track with its goals. It starts with getting their running game going outside of Haynes King, who has continued to deliver on the ground for the Yellow Jackets this season. Jamal Haynes and Malachi Hosley need to be more involved and produce at a high level. One thing that is going for the Yellow Jackets that was a welcome sign offensively is that their wide receivers got going last game. Isiah Canion is beginning to come into his own on the offensive side of the ball, and Eric Rivers had his best game in a Georgia Tech uniform. Rivers finished with eight catches for 77 yards and a touchdown in a win over Wake Forest. If Virginia Tech does sell out to stop the run, Georgia will have full confidence in airing it out in the passing game.

Another storyline to watch is on the defensive ball. Virginia Tech has one of the worst offensive lines in the ACC, and has struggled to protect it senior quarterback Kyron Drones. The Yellow Jackets have been looking to have a signature game on the defensive line this season, especially in the ACC. This could be the game they get unleashed and make it tough for Drones to get going on offense and provide more opportunities to get the ball back to the offense. Can Georgia Tech stifle and frustrate Kyron Drones?

What exactly is FPI though?

"ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."