College basketball analyst: ‘It’s time to sound some alarms with Gonzaga’

Gonzaga is ‘compiling a lot of losses and is giving itself less and less wiggle room.’

Cole Forsman | Feb 3, 2025

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike (13) controls the ball against St. Mary's Gaels center Mitchell Saxen (11). / Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images

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Gonzaga Bulldogs

There's a sense of déjà vu going on around the Gonzaga men's basketball team.

The Bulldogs (16-7, 7-3 WCC) went from being ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 poll with a lot of hype in the fall, to dropping out of the media poll entirely by mid-January after a few losses to good teams in nonconference play piled onto an early loss in West Coast Conference play to Santa Clara. Just when it seemed like the Zags were about to turn a corner, they lost a pivotal matchup to rival Saint Mary's in early February, creating an even wider gap between them and the Gaels in the league standings.

If that doesn't sound like how the 2023-24 season transpired for Mark Few and company, then perhaps the latest concerns from the national media regarding the Bulldogs' NCAA Tournament chances will ring a bell.

Following Gonzaga's loss to Saint Mary's in a 62-58 final from Moraga, California, on Saturday, CBS Sports' Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish discussed the Zags' postseason resume during an episode of the Eye on College Basketball podcast (fast forward to 1:07:20 mark).

“We have now entered the point where Gonzaga is one loss away from, ‘Hm, gonna be in the tournament?’” Norlander said. "That's where it is right now; compiling a lot of losses and is giving itself less and less wiggle room."

"I still think Gonzaga is going to make the tournament," Norlander said. "But a year ago, it was in this spot, had that game against Kentucky in noncon, won that and then found a ramp to cruise to a Sweet 16. That noncon game doesn’t exist on the schedule this season, and it's going to have to get hot and atone for this loss before it gets to the postseason."

Most NCAA Tournament bracketology experts seem to agree with Norlander's postseason prediction for Gonzaga, which checked in on the 10-seed line in the latest bracket from CBS Sports' Jerry Palm. However trending in the wrong direction, the Bulldogs' postseason resume doesn't necessarily require as high-caliber of a win as the Wildcats one was last year, given a much-improved WCC has made it possible to earn high-quality wins throughout the regular season leading up to the week of the conference tournament in March.

That being said, the Zags haven't capitalized off their marquee opportunities as of late. When looking at the NET Rankings, Gonzaga is just 2-6 in quadrant 1 games and has the quadrant 2 loss to the Broncos.

“When you play in the WCC, it's a little bit like playing in the AAC or the Mountain West," Parrish said. "If you take a bad loss here, bad loss there and miss out on your very few opportunities to get good wins, well, then you just messed up."

The WCC isn't the SEC or Big 12, but Gonzaga's league slate still features a handful of opportunities down the stretch before postseason play tips off. The Bulldogs notably have three quad 1 and two quad 2 games left on their regular season schedule, including the rematch against the Gaels on Feb. 22.

"There's nothing to be embarrassed about losing to Saint Mary's," Parrish said. "But for the second straight year we’ve gotten pretty deep into the calendar and they don’t have the resume a brand of their size, with a quality team and strong computer numbers, should have."

"I agree," Norlander replied. "It’s time to sound some alarms there with Gonzaga."

Some in the national media landscape might be ready to turn on the Zags, but according to Torvik's projections, Gonzaga has a 94.8% chance of earning an at-large bid. The Bulldogs, ranked No. 13 in the NET, still have two high-quality wins over Baylor and at San Diego State, as well as a trio of quad 2 victories against Indiana, Arizona State and Oregon State.