ESPN gives Gonzaga slight edge vs. Kentucky

College basketball fans expect quite the treat Saturday when the No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs and No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats go toe-to-toe from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle.

Both nationally recognized programs, each boasting deep rosters composed of experienced players, have gotten off to fast starts to the 2024-25 season. Wildcats head coach Mark Pope, formerly at BYU, has won seven of his first eight games at the helm, including a notable 77-72 victory over then-No. 6 Duke last month, after putting together an entirely new cast via the transfer portal this offseason.

Mark Few and company are also off to a 7-1 start, except they’ve accomplished the feat in a slightly different manner compared to their next opponent. The Bulldogs, who retained over 81% of their minutes from last season, tipped the new campaign off with a historic win over then-No. 7 Baylor on opening night, followed by wins over Arizona State and at San Diego State. Then the Zags responded to a slight setback to West Virginia in the Battle 4 Atlantis with double-digit triumphs over then-No. 14 Indiana and Davidson to close out the multi-team event in fifth place.

Continuity and depth have certainly boded well for Gonzaga thus far into nonconference play, and according to ESPN, that trend will continue against Kentucky. ESPN Analytics gives the Bulldogs a 59.4% chance of beating the Wildcats.

Hard to say how much ESPN’s prediction is weighing on Lamont Butler’s ankle injury. The San Diego State transfer sustained the injury during the second half of Kentucky’s 70-66 loss at Clemson on Tuesday. Pope said it’s been “a little bit of an issue” for the fifth-year guard, though he still expects Butler will be good to go against the Zags.

Butler is one of five Wildcats averaging double-figures in scoring through the first month of the season. He’s second on the team at 12.9 points per game and is knocking down 55.1% of his attempts from the field. Butler also dishes out a team-high 3.9 assists and grabs 3.1 rebounds per game.

“They are real handsy on defense, especially Lamont Butler,” senior guard Nolan Hickman said of the Wildcats. “He took that tenacity from over there in San Diego State. So I feel like he's brought a different energy to the Kentucky guards on sitting down and taking pride in playing defense so, all props to him. That's my guy as well."

Kentucky ranks among the top 25 in the country in defensive efficiency, though what it’s done on the other end of the floor so far this season is probably the bigger story. At 92.9 points per game, the Wildcats have the No. 1 scoring offense in the land that also ranks sixth in tempo and No. 10 in 2-point field goal percentage.

Conversely, the Zags are No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency and score just over 90 points per game. Senior Graham Ike (13.8 points), sixth-year guard Khalif Battle (13.5 points) and redshirt sophomore Braden Huff (13.5 points) lead a balanced offensive attack that’s helmed by one of the game’s best point guards in Ryan Nembhard. The senior is No. 1 in total assists (86) and second in assist-to-turnover ratio (6.14).

MORE GONZAGA NEWS & ANALYSIS

Gonzaga’s Nolan Hickman expects ‘a lot of emotions’ when he returns to Seattle for Kentucky game

What Kentucky’s Mark Pope said on Gonzaga matchup: 'It's gonna be an epic adventure'

Gonzaga’s Michael Ajayi is ready ‘to put on a show’ in Seattle vs. Kentucky

What Gonzaga's Nolan Hickman said ahead of Kentucky matchup in Seattle

Kentucky’s Lamont Butler could be limited vs. Gonzaga due to ankle injury

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