NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Gonzaga's resume takes hit after Indiana, Baylor losses

Gonzaga can sit back and watch the rest of conference tournament week stress-free knowing it's secured a spot in the NCAA Tournament as the 2025 West Coast Conference tournament champions.

While the Bulldogs (25-8. 14-4 WCC) controlled their postseason destiny by clinching an automatic bid with a win over Saint Mary's earlier this week in the WCC tournament finale, they'll still want to keep a close eye on what some of their nonleague opponents are doing in their respective conference tournaments leading up to Selection Sunday.

Two bubble teams that the Bulldogs beat in nonleague play earlier this season — Indiana and San Diego State — each had opportunities to solidify their postseason resumes and advance in their respective conference tournaments entering Thursday.

The Hoosiers entered postseason play having won five of their last seven contests, highlighted by victories over Michigan State and Purdue, but couldn't ride that momentum past Oregon in the second round of the Big Ten tournament. Indiana will likely finish outside the top 50 of the NET at No. 54, which means Gonzaga's 89-73 victory over the Hoosiers in the Battle 4 Atlantis game will count as a quadrant 2 win for the Bulldogs.

The Aztecs, also just outside the NET's top 50, didn't help their at-large case in a 62-52 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West tournament. San Diego State swept the Broncos in the regular season but couldn't make it 3-for-3 after being outscored 34-19 in the second half of Thursday's quarterfinal matchup.

Gonzaga's 80-67 win over San Diego State at the Viejas Arena will still count as a quad 1 game for both teams on Selection Sunday, but it won't look as impressive for the Zags if the Aztecs land on the wrong side of the bubble after coming up empty in the Mountain West conference tournament. The Zags rank No. 37 in the NET's "wins above bubble metric," a measurement of how an average bubble team would fare against that team's schedule, and likely won't improve in that regard much now that San Diego State and Indiana have been eliminated from their conference tournaments.

Baylor's narrow 76-74 defeat to Texas Tech in the Big 12 quarterfinal round also didn't do much to help Gonzaga's resume either — the Bulldogs' win over the Bears in the season opener fell from quad 1 to quad 2 status as a result of the Bears dropping from No. 30 to No. 31 in the NET. Unless Baylor somehow sneaks back into the top 30 with some outside help, the Zags will go into Sunday with four quad 1 wins and six quad 2 wins.

Here's a look at where notable bracketologists and predictive metrics have the Zags projected to land on the 68-team bracket when Selection Sunday goes live this Sunday (3 p.m. PT, CBS).

ESPN: 7-seed, Midwest Region

Joe Lunardi kept Gonzaga on the 7-seed line in the Midwest Region following the WCC championship game, setting the Bulldogs up with a hypothetical matchup against 10-seed Drake in the first round from Rocket Arena in Cleveland. If the Zags were to advance to the second round, they'd likely take on 2-seed Tennessee in this scenario.

Drake won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship in its first season under legendary Division-II head coach Ben McCollum, who recruited a whole handful of Division-II talent to completely revamp the Bulldogs' roster this offseason. Four of Drake's starting five had followed McCollum from Northwest Missouri State, a Division-II school in Marysville, Missouri, where McCollum won four national titles in a seven-year stretch.

With regard to Gonzaga's notable nonleague opponents, Lunardi has San Diego State (Last Four In) and Indiana (First Four Out) on the bubble, while Baylor (9-seed) actually moved up a line in ESPN's latest update.

Fox Sports: 8-seed, Midwest Region

Perhaps the least-desirable outcome for the Bulldogs on Selection Sunday would be falling on one of the 8-seed vs. 9-seed lines. It would likely mean taking on a power conference team that went somewhere around .500 in league play in the first round, followed by a potential matchup against a No. 1 seed in the second round. Some might argue putting the Zags this low on the bracket wouldn't be fair for competitive balance, but based on their resume, bracketologists and predictive metrics don't rule it out of the realm of possibility.

Fox Sports' Mike DeCourcy had the Bulldogs on the 8-seed line in the Midwest Region facing 9-seed Georgia in the first round. No. 1 seed Houston would likely stand in the way of a 10th consecutive appearance in the Sweet 16 if the Zags were to get by the SEC's Bulldogs, who went 20-12 overall and 8-10 in league play. Georgia lost to Oklahoma, 81-75, in the SEC tournament.

Indiana and San Diego State were among DeCourcy's last four teams in the field. Baylor was on the 11-seed line in the West Region.

CBS Sports: 9-seed, South Region

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm has the Bulldogs facing an Illinois squad that's ranked No. 18 in KenPom in the first round and with a win, would would likely face 1-seed Auburn in the second round of his hypothetical bracket. While that scenario would likely deliver some thrilling matchups for the first weekend of the tournament, it's probably one the Zags would like to avoid.

Under head coach Mark Few, Gonzaga has advanced past the first round all three times it's been a No. 8 or No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But in all three cases, the Bulldogs lost in the second round to a No. 1 seed: 2014 as an 8-seed vs. Arizona, 2010 as an 8-seed vs. Syracuse and 2009 as a 9-seed vs. Arizona.

Indiana and San Diego State were among Palm's last four teams in the field. Baylor was on the 11-seed line in the West Region. Baylor was on the 10-seed line in the South Region.

Predictive metrics: 8-10 seed range

Torvik's "bracket matrix" has Gonzaga on the 8-seed line along with Memphis, UConn and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are No. 8 overall in Torvik's team rankings.

Gonzaga is ranked No. 35 in the country in EvanMiya.com's "resume quality" metric, similar to the NET's wins above bubble, putting the Bulldogs in the 9-10 seed range.

MORE GONZAGA NEWS & ANALYSIS

Gonzaga's Ryan Nembhard enters NCAA Tournament on a historic passing rate

After winning WCC, Gonzaga makes move in March Madness projections

How should the NCAA Tournament selection committee seed Gonzaga? 'Lower than where they should be'

What Gonzaga's Mark Few said after WCC championship win vs. Saint Mary's

NCAA Tournament bound: Gonzaga beats Saint Mary’s to clinch automatic bid

Gonzaga’s Ben Gregg puts Saint Mary’s star on a poster with vicious dunk

FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDIA

Continue to follow our Gonzaga coverage on social media by liking us on Facebook and following us on Instagram and Twitter.