ESPN Ranks NCAA Tournament's Top Players: Where Illinois' Keaton Wagler Lands

Wagler was a top performer in the Big Ten this season, but where does he rank among players in the Big Dance?

Mar 8, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; ]Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) looks to pass during the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The NCAA Tournament features the best of the best. With the top clubs in the nation taking part in the event, naturally most of the country’s elite hoopers are also along for the ride. Illinois and its star Keaton Wagler fall into both of those categories.

But while the Illini – who were handed a No. 3 seed in the South Region when the brackets were unveiled on Sunday evening – have their slot cemented, where exactly does Wagler rank?

Per ESPN, it’s very high. The 6-foot-6 guard Wagler, expected to be plucked off the NBA Draft board as a top-10 pick this summer, appears to be an afterthought at this point. But there’s a difference between NBA prospect potential and value as a college player.

In college, Wagler is truly spectacular – but is he better than tenured players like Purdue’s Braden Smith or Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr.? Yes and yes would be the answer if you ask ESPN.

Is Keaton Wagler a top-five player in the NCAA Tournament?

Mar 8, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) reacts after shooting a three point basket during the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Analysts Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf ranked the top 50 players in the NCAA Tournament, and Wagler landed at No. 5 – ahead of both Smith and Fears. Only Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg, who was named the Big Ten’s Player of the Year for 2025-26, was ranked above Wagler (at No. 4) among conference players.

“The star freshman has had some of the best individual performances of any player in college basketball this season, including his 46-point outing at Purdue,” wrote Borzello. “Wagler needs to regain some momentum in the tournament – he hasn’t shot 50 percent from the field in a game since Feb. 10.”

Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. (No. 3), BYU forward AJ Dybantsa (No. 2) and Duke forward Cameron Boozer (No. 1) rounded out the top five. With four of the top five players involved (in the eyes of ESPN) being freshman, it will be interesting to see how the tournament unfolds – as it has long been characterized as an event where experience wins out.

The other key factor at the Big Dance, however, has often been guard play. And with Illinois clearly featuring one of the best in the field – the second-best one, according to ESPN – Brad Underwood’s club appears to be in safe hands. 

Still, the question remains: Does pure talent and ability outweigh experience in March (at least this year)? Or will the freshman phenoms – including Wagler – fall short to tenured hoopers with tournament reps already under their belts?

We’ll get our first hints of answers to all those questions beginning Thursday night when Illinois takes on 14th-seeded Penn (8:25 p.m. CT, TNT).