Would Illinois Prefer Michigan or Arizona in the National Championship?

Illinois would happily welcome – and, frankly, would be over the moon – to face Michigan or Arizona one game from now. Simply because that would mean the Illini are still alive on Monday, college basketball's final day of the season. To play for a national championship, though, Illinois must first take care of business against UConn – which is no easy task.

With that in mind, by no means are we assuring that the Illini will knock off the Huskies – although we may be leaning that way. But if Brad Underwood and his crew are able to take the next step Saturday night (5:09 p.m. CT, TBS), which squad would be the more preferable matchup in the national title: Michigan or Arizona?

The case for Illinois preferring Michigan in the national championship

Feb 27, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) drives the ball against Michigan Wolverines guard Roddy Gayle Jr. (11) during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The key advantage the Illini would have against the Wolverines: familiarity. Illinois has already seen Michigan – in a game the Illini lost 84-70 in Champaign – and Underwood has been relatively impressive making adjustments against second-time-around opponents.

After falling to Nebraska in the Big Ten opener, Illinois responded in the rematch in Lincoln, riding a dominant 45-30 second half to a victory in early February. Especially defensively, the Illini would undoubtedly be better equipped to handle the Wolverines than they were back in their late-February outing.

Additionally, although Michigan has exceptional size as a team, it’s not exactly a dominant force on the glass. But Illinois is. After losing the battle of the boards in their first clash (34-30), the Illini could flip that number – and then some – riding their rebounding to control the second-chance point disparity.

Also, the loss – and the manner in which Michigan and Morez Johnson Jr. wiped Illinois all over its home floor – may prove to be extra motivation for the Illini. Although anyone would (rightfully) argue any additional incentive shouldn’t be necessary at this point of the season, it certainly wouldn’t be a negative to have that loss serving as some extra fuel.

Why Illinois would prefer to see Arizona in the national title game

Mar 7, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd reacts in the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Arizona, similar to Illinois, is a force to be reckoned with on the glass. The Wildcats have great size, which they pair with relentless effort. But it's strength-on-strength. A wide rebounding margin in a theoretical matchup between these two clubs – favoring either side – would come as a shock.

The Wildcats other top strength: interior scoring. Among remaining squads, there isn’t a better offense inside the arc, nor a team less interested in getting up threes. Arizona is relatively efficient from long range (36.7 percent) but ranks third to last in the country in terms of three-point rate.

The Illini, meanwhile, protect the paint like it’s Fort Knox, but they are vulnerable against opponents capable of going on heaters from deep. In six of their eight losses, they yielded double-digit made threes. But Arizona has connected on 10 or more triples just twice all year against high-major foes.

The other key reason Illinois would prefer Arizona: The Wildcats don’t have a player named Yaxel Lendeborg on their roster. Keaton Wagler may have managed 23 points against Michigan, but it was inefficient (7-for-17 from the field) and mostly garbage-time production.

Lendeborg, at 6-foot-9 and 230 pounds, has a combination of size, length, lateral foot speed and anticipation that no other player in the sport possesses. He’s likely the best one-on-one defender in the country and is certainly the player who gave Wagler the most trouble this season. (Wagler struggled to even initiate offense against Lendeborg at times.)

Although Arizona is stifling on defense, it doesn’t feature a player who can truly create problems for Wagler, which is often the only way to slow down the Illini offense.

The verdict: Illinois would definitely prefer Arizona in the national title game.