Final Four Preview and Predictions: Can Illinois Win It All in Indianapolis?

The NCAA Tournament has already taken most of its victims. Brackets are busted – many brutally so – and national title aspirations have come and gone like a ship passing in the night.

Except for four teams.

Illinois, UConn, Arizona and Michigan remain alive and well in the Big Dance – but only one of those clubs will be left standing at the end of this coming Monday night. Which team will make that claim? We make our predictions for each Final Four game and the national title below:

2026 Final Four prediction

Nov 28, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) is guarded by UConn Huskies forward Alex Karaban (11) in the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Illinois vs. UConn prediction

Both of these teams entered the NCAA Tournament in fairly similar situations. UConn had just been blasted by 20 against St. John’s in the Big East Tournament, while Illinois had lost five of its past nine – including a quarterfinal loss in the Big Ten Tournament.

Neither squad was exactly humming along with the wind at its back, yet both wound up in the Final Four. Now they meet again, more than four months after their initial regular-season tangle – a game that UConn controlled from wire-to-wire en route to a 74-61 victory.

But Illinois is a different animal this time around. Boasting the top offense in the country, along with a defense that has been unrecognizably stout in the NCAA Tournament, the Illini are firing on all cylinders on both sides of the floor.

As for UConn, it remains a similar, albeit sharper, version of its early-season self. A combination of solid personnel and top-notch coaching have sustained a suffocating defense, while the offense – although solid – sometimes struggle to find answers.

In the tournament, though, big man Tarris Reed Jr. has emerged as a breakout star, averaging 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. The rest of the crew has stepped up at times, but no other Huskies player has been nearly as consistent in recent weeks.

Dan Hurley’s club has embodied the March mantra of “survive and advance." But although it may do the former for quite a while on Saturday night, the latter seems to be an unlikely outcome for this UConn team that has been dancing with the end of its season for long enough.

The pick: Illinois

Michigan vs. Arizona prediction

Michigan guard Elliot Cadeau (3) and forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) watch a play against Tennessee during the first half of NCAA Tournament Elite 8 round at United Center in Chicago on Sunday, March 29, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A pair of brutally physical – not to mention tremendously balanced (on both sides of the floor) – clubs meet in this Final Four matchup that many have dubbed as the de facto national championship game. Michigan and Arizona are connected at the hip in every advanced metric imaginable – and for good reason.

The Wolverines feature the No. 1 defense (per KenPom), anchored by big man Aday Mara, who has been one of college basketball's most visibly effective individual defenders in quite some time. Yaxel Lendeborg, the Big Ten’s Player of the Year, remains a basketball Swiss Army Knife who seemingly decided to flip a switch and become a dynamite scorer during the Big Dance, as well.

Freshman Trey McKenney has taken on a larger role in the absence of L.J. Cason – and he has done so without a hitch. The list goes on for Michigan. Every Wolverines player in the rotation seems to be playing their best ball of 2025-26 – which says a lot for a Michigan unit that was bruising opponents left and right in the regular season.

As for Arizona, one question arises: How did the Wildcats lose a game this year? Michigan has been prone to lapses (although not in the tournament) and has battled some injury woes, but Arizona hasn’t let up all year.

Save for the (inexplicable) two-game skid in February, Arizona hasn’t lost a game in this campaign. Two freshmen – Brayden Burries and Koa Peat – lead the Wildcats in scoring, but Jaden Bradley (the Big 12 Player of the Year) is arguably the heartbeat of the team. Motiejus Krivas is an absolute load in the interior, and then there is fellow big man Tobe Awake snagging 9.1 rebounds in just 20.9 minutes (yes, we had to double-check that, too).

Dominant on the boards, unbelievably well-rounded and playing with metronome-level consistency, Arizona is every bit a juggernaut. But so is Michigan. And with both teams currently operating at their best, it’s hard not to lean (ever so slightly) in the Wolverines’ direction.

The pick: Michigan

2026 NCAA men's basketball national championship prediction

Illinois vs. Michigan prediction

Champaign saw Morez Johnson Jr.’s much-anticipated homecoming (of sorts) in late February – and it was an absolute dud ... for the Illini, that is. The Wolverines wiped them all over the State Farm Center floor, to the tune of an 84-70 Michigan win.

But as mentioned back in the Illinois-UConn preview, this Illini squad is an entirely different unit. Coach Brad Underwood suddenly has his defense operating at an extremely high level. Iowa made one two-point field goal in the second half in the Elite Eight. Houston, a top-15 offense in KenPom, managed to go just 22-of-64 (34.4 percent) from the field.

Then, there’s the glass. Both Arizona and Michigan are tremendous on the boards, but there isn’t a better rebounding team in this four-team field than Illinois – and, at this current juncture, the margin is fairly wide.

At the same time, Michigan is, quite simply, a better team. There's no getting around it. The Wolverines, who have an exceptional group of one-on-one defenders, are also a team designed to give the high-powered Illini offense trouble. Even if the battle of the boards leans in Illinois’ direction and the defense manages to suffocate Michigan – both of which are real possibilities – it will likely require some hot shooting from the Illini to prevail in this one.

Can it happen? Of course. But it’s no longer March. In April, true colors are revealed and champions are crowned. And this 2025-26 Michigan team, which is a force the Big Ten hasn’t seen in ages, has all the makings of a champion.

The pick: Michigan