Joe Lunardi's ESPN Bracketology Projects Fairy-Tale Collision Course for Illinois

Illinois just keeps winning. Sure, during the Illini’s six-game win streak, there has been probably only one game that should have challenged them – at Iowa – but there’s something to be said about taking care of business in the Big Ten. Road games at Northwestern are no joke. And Penn State, having played both Purdue and Michigan close in the past few weeks, isn’t the rollover it appeared to be earlier this year.

Either way, Illinois continues to win – and the analytics and pundits alike continue to take notice. The latest backer of the Illini is ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who lifted them in his Tuesday edition of Bracketology from a four seed to a three seed – which is where they stayed on Friday in Lunardi’s latest release.

Illinois' potential Final Four path in ESPN Bracketology from Joe Lunardi

Dec 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the second half against the Southern University Jaguars at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

But even more eye-catching than Illinois’ seed: its path. The Illini, slotted in the Midwest region, are projected to match up with Wright State in the first round. Assuming the Illini win, a date with the winner of North Carolina and currently undefeated Miami (Ohio) awaits.

Then things get interesting – before they get really interesting. If Illinois manages to make the trek to the Sweet 16, it would likely face Iowa State, the same program it knocked out during the Elite Eight run back in 2024.

But to punch their ticket to the Final Four, the Illini would likely be tasked with taking down a familiar Big Ten rival – one that Illinois fans harbor extremely harsh feelings toward: Michigan.

The Wolverines, who poached former Illini forward Morez Johnson Jr. this past offseason, are the top projected seed in the Midwest Region. This theoretical clash would be a rematch of a highly anticipated late-February contest in which Michigan is set to travel to Champaign in a homecoming (of sorts) for johnson.

As if the storylines weren’t rich enough, the hypothetical Elite Eight matchup between the Illini and Wolverines would also take place in the state of Illinois, just a short two hours' drive north of Champaign, in Chicago.

Nothing would feel better for Illini fans – and surely Brad Underwood and his club – than securing their first-class tickets to Indianapolis with a victory over Michigan in the Windy City.

Whether the opportunity even arises, though, remains to be seen. With more than half of Big Ten play ahead of both Illinois and Michigan, there’s ample time for both clubs to improve or harm their stock, and shuffle around in terms of NCAA Tournament seed.

That said, it would hardly be a shock – in fact, it’s the current expectation – to see Illinois and Michigan in the Midwest Region. And regardless of eventual seed lines, both teams have the pieces to make a run to the Elite Eight and meet for a dream matchup that will satisfy the usually insatiable hoops appetite of any college basketball fan.