3 Stats That May Decide Illinois vs. Ohio State in Week 4

These key statistical categories – and each team's ability to optimize them – may determine the final outcome of Illinois-Ohio State

Sep 12, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema during the first half at against the Duke Blue Devils at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Illinois (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) travels to the lion’s den on Saturday (11 a.m. CT, FOX) for a Week 4 matchup against No. 7 Ohio State (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) in a clash that opens the Big Ten slate for both squads. Each team's ability to optimize the following three statistical categories will go a long way toward determining the winner in Columbus on Saturday.

Three numbers to know ahead of Illinois-Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes running back Bo Jackson (25) runs the ball against Kent State Golden Flashes defensive back A'tiq Muhammad (1) in the first quarter of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Sept. 19, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Ohio State: rushing yards per carry

Generally, a rushing average of 4.6 yards (Ohio State's current clip) is a healthy figure. But considering the Buckeyes’ level of competition through three weeks – save for Texas in Week 2 – that number is unexpectedly low. (For some perspective, the Illini’s own rushing attack, which has been relatively uninspiring, is averaging 5.3 yards per carry in 2026.)

Ohio State’s most impressive outing on the ground thus far has been its opener against Ball State, a contest in which the Buckeyes ran for 237 yards on 35 carries (6.8 per rush). But Texas bottled up Ohio State’s rushing attack to the tune of just 3.0 yards per carry in Week 2.

That isn’t exactly concerning. But managing just 3.8 yards per attempt against Kent State in Week 3 certainly is. With Illinois on the heels of its best run-defense performance of the year (Southern Illinois averaged just 1.1 yards per carry), Illini defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck and his troops may be poised for a surprisingly stingy afternoon this Saturday.

Illinois: turnovers forced

Sep 19, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive lineman Will Holmes (24) and teammate and linebacker Ismael Kante (26) rush Southern Illinois Salukis quarterback DJ Williams (1) during the second half at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Three games is a small sample size, so it isn’t quite time for the Illini to sound any alarm bells. But Hauck was brought to Champaign in large part for his ability to wreak defensive havoc and create momentum-changing plays with his 3-3-5 scheme – namely in the form of turnovers.

He hasn’t lived up to that part of his reputation just yet. In three outings, the Illini have forced just two turnovers – both of which were interceptions. At the very least, when Illinois has created takeaways, it hasn’t wasted any time capitalizing, as both of its picks were returned to the house for six apiece.

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Nevertheless, the Illini must win the turnover battle this weekend. It's non-negotiable. And although the goal is for Illinois’ offense to be perfect from that perspective, that's unlikely to be the reality. Which means the Illini defense will need to force at least one and, ideally, multiple turnovers to keep this one within striking defense and give Illinois a shot.

Ohio State: sacks

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Khary Wilder (34) tackles Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) during the NCAA football game at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas on Sept. 12, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Getting behind schedule against Ohio State’s defense is a recipe for disaster. Last year, that was the reality the Illini offense unfortunately faced (when Luke Altmyer was sacked four times). 

This time around, it may be different. On the season, the Buckeyes' defense has accumulated only four total sacks – the same amount they recorded in that fateful game in Champaign alone. 

Interestingly, the Texas matchup was the only time Ohio State has brought down an opposing quarterback more than once this season.

On the flip side, Illinois’ new-look front five has been almost startlingly sound in protecting quarterback Katin Houser. After Houser went down zero times through two weeks, though, he was sacked twice Saturday by Southern Illinois. But part of that can be chalked up to an injury-riddled offensive line. If the Illini can get healthy – or at least closer to whole – come this Saturday, they may be able to keep Houser’s jersey clean.