ESPN FPI Predicts Clear Favorite for Illinois Football vs. Nebraska

Friday night lights are back for Illinois football (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten), which will host Nebraska (5-3, 2-3 Big Ten) at Gies Memorial Stadium this week in a rare weeknight game (Friday, 7 p.m. CT, FOX).

The Illini and Cornhuskers are currently moving in opposite directions. Illinois, after falling to 2-3 overall and staring down the barrel of what then seemed to be a lost season, has rattled off three victories in a row – including a huge home win over Oregon.

Nebraska, meanwhile, carried an undefeated record into a colossal clash with then-No. 7 Indiana, controlled the game for three-plus quarters and then fumbled away an 11-point fourth-quarter lead. The Huskers have lost two in a row since then – at Oregon and vs. Washington – and scored just 24 total points in those games.

ESPN FPI picks favorite for Illinois football vs. Nebraska

Oct 24, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema during the second half against the Oregon Ducks at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

But although all signs, at least at first glance, point toward an Illini win, ESPN’s Football Power Index says, "Not so fast." Here's what the metric predicts:

The Cornhuskers have a 69.1 percent chance of victory, leaving the Illini with a 30.9 percent chance of successfully defending their home field. Nebraska is No. 17 in ESPN’s FPI, while Illinois is way down the list at No. 48.

Is ESPN’s FPI forecast for Illinois vs. Nebraska a fair assessment?

Sep 20, 2024; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule and Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema talk before a game at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

No, but let’s clear up one thing first: Nebraska is, objsctively, the better football team of the two. The Cornhuskers’ defense is really good. Their offense, although not exceptional, should have its opportunities against an Illinois defens that – although slowly improving – remains below average among Big Ten programs.

The Illini offense, meanwhile, has been moving in the wrong direction. Quarterback Katin Houser returned at Maryland last week, and even played pretty well. But save for an outing against a terrible Michigan State defense, Illinois hasn’t scored more than 21 points in conference play.

As crazy as it sounds given how the season started, the Illini are going to be forced to rely on their defense to win Friday night against Nebraska.

All of that seems to go against our point that ESPN’s assessment is off, but even keeping all that in mind, Illinois should have better than a three-in-10 chance of beating Nebraska.

Back home under the lights. pic.twitter.com/QYYyugP9GW
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) November 2, 2026

The metrics aren't taking into account momentum. It's impossible to quantify the kind of funk that has fallen over the Cornhuskers, who were minutes away from owning a top-10 win and being firmly in the discussion for the CFP, and who instead are now losers of three in a row.

Just like it can’t put a number on the confidence rising among the Illini, who just returned their starting quarterback and have now won three games in a row, thanks in large part to a reeling defense suddenly finding its footing.

Home-field advantage is also still a thing, and this clash takes place in Champaign. It's still Nebraska’s game to lose, but it’s closer to a coin flip than ESPN’s FPI seems to compute.

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