ESPN's SP+ Metric Predicts Final Score of Illinois vs. Duke in Week 2

SP+ is yet another metric that isn't exactly loving the Illini – but does it like them to get by the Blue Devils in Week 2?

Illinois coach Bret Bielema disputes a call in the first quarter of the Music City Bowl against Tennessee in an NCAA football game on Dec. 30, 2025, in Nashville, Tennessee. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

We know ESPN's Football Power Index isn’t the biggest fan of Illinois, but to be fair, it isn't alone. SP+, which was created by Bill Connelly (also of ESPN), is comparatively low on the Illini – though, notably, it wasn’t going into the season.

The predictive tool slotted Illinois at No. 29 in the country before its season-opening matchup with UAB. But even after a 42-23 win over the Blazers, the Illini were dropped a cringe-inducing 13 spots – in large part, surely, due to its underwhelming defensive performance. The Illini defense now ranks No. 60 in the country, per SP+, while the offense is ranked No. 35 and the special teams is at No. 30.

ESPN’s SP+ predicts the final score of Illinois vs. Duke in Week 2

The upshot for Illini Nation: SP+ still expects Illinois to knock off Duke in Champaign on Saturday (2:30 p.m. CT, FS1), predicting a final score of 30-26 in favor of the home squad. It gives Illinois a 58 percent chance of winning in Week 2.

WEEK 2 SP+ PICKS

Ohio St 27, Texas 25
OU 27, Michigan 20 (17-10 feels more right, or 7-0)
Mizzou 27, Kansas 25 🫪🤮
Iowa 32, ISU 14
Boise 31, Memphis 25
Bama 28, Kentucky 19
Illinois 30, Duke 26
AFA 26, NDSU 25
Tenn 35, GT 20
Utes 35, Hogs 23

All games: https://t.co/Hml1qz0bOL pic.twitter.com/9HhkgpTWxC

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 8, 2026

Interestingly, the Blue Devils have a nearly identical ranking across all three phases. Their offense ranks one spot ahead of the Illini’s at No. 34, while the defense checks in at No. 64 and the special teams at No. 36.

ESPN’s SP+ prediction for Illinois vs. Duke: Agree or disagree?

Sep 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Katin Houser (4) scores a touchdown during the second half against the UAB Blazers at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Per the numbers, this is strong offense vs. poor defense on both sides of the football. Quarterback Katin Houser and the Illini offense should be able to shred the Blue Devils' D. On the flip side, Duke could ride the coattails of star running back Nate Sheppard to success.

And each offense’s most prominent strength just so happens to coincide with the most apparent weakness of the opposing defense (Illinois’ rush defense is porous and Duke’s passing defense is down).

So a relatively high-scoring affair seems to be the logical prediction – at first. But there’s this: If Duke opens up an early lead, it will try to chew clock and lean on Sheppard, giving Illinois fewer possessions and flipping this from a borderline shootout to a grinder.

If, however, the Illini get a lead, the Blue Devils will be forced to rely on their passing game – which, through one week, appears to be shaky at best. The only way this one winds up being an entertaining back-and-forth battle is if neither defense can buy a stop.

But between Illini coach Bret Bielema’s defensive background, defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck’s accomplishment-laden resume and Duke coach Manny Diaz’s own defensive roots, a Week 2 leap from both defenses should be the expectation. (And let's not forget that the Blue Devils did yield only three points to Tulane in Week 1.)

So although we’ll follow suit with SP+ and lean in Illinois’ direction, we don’t expect as many points on the board.

Illinois on SI final score prediction: Illinois 27, Duke 16