Staff Picks: Who Wins Illinois Football at Indiana?

Look, we all knew it was leading to this: No. 9 Illinois (3-0) and No. 19 Indiana (3-0) are set to square off Saturday in Bloomington (6:30 p.m. CT, NBC), both aiming to remain unbeaten and both striving for prime position in the College Football Playoff race in the Big Ten opener for each team.

It's still early days, but this is an important one for both teams. The schedule gives the Hoosiers little breathing room down the stretch if they come up short Saturday, and the Illini have talked openly about this matchup being a potential launching pad for the rest of their season. But they will likely have to take flight without injured defensive back Xavier Scott, which means quarterback Luke Altmyer and the offense may have to pitch something close to the perfect on the road.

Jason Langendorf

If Xavier Scott is indeed out, that's an infinitely bigger absence for Illinois than Lee Beebe Jr. for Indiana (who will be without the running back for the remainder of the season). In a matchup this tight, the Illini already needed to tighten Altmyer's protection, decisively win on turnover margin (again) and make plays to slow Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza. That's likely too much to ask without Scott, the skeleton key in their secondary.

Prediction: Indiana 23, Illinois 20

Altmyer was great in the non-conference and leading Illinois to outscore their opponents 135-22 en route to just the fifth 3-0 start in the 21st century for the Illini (the other seasons being 2000, 2001, 2011, 2024).

Gonna need another great game from Altmyer this Saturday and… pic.twitter.com/1hVP6hn3c0
— Jonathan Koon (@JonathanKoon1) September 19, 2025

Steve Greenberg

If Xavier Scott can’t go for the Illini, it’s a gut shot to the defense. Somewhere or another, it would have to factor into a matchup this tight in a big way. The Hoosiers probably won’t be the better team at the end of the season, but home field never hurts. This one has a chance to be really frustrating.

Prediction: Indiana 26, Illinois 24

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti — Head Coach Curt Cignetti at Indiana University football practice on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jackson Langendorf

Illinois and Indiana are practically mirror images of one another: extremely skilled and fundamentally sound on offense, defense and special teams. The Hoosiers’ offense is arguably more explosive and dynamic than the Illini’s, but the visitors’ defense is designed for slowing down opposing offenses just like Indiana’s. When it's this even, you have to go with the home squad. Can Illinois knock off Indiana? Without a doubt. But it’s difficult to make an argument that Curt Cignetti’s squad isn't the favorite.

Prediction: Indiana 30, Illinois 24

Pranav Hegde

I had been leaning toward Illinois, but Scott's likely absence changes the outlook. Even if he suits up, he won’t be at full strength – and against a Hoosiers offense with two explosive receivers, that’s a costly disadvantage. This always figured to be a game that would come down to who caught more breaks, and Indiana may have already received the biggest one in Scott’s injury. Luke Altmyer should make enough plays to keep Illinois within striking distance, but unless linebacker Gabe Jacas and the defense is immaculate, the Hoosiers will be very tough to beat in Bloomington.

Prediction: Indiana 34, Illinois 30

Gabe Jacas is making his presence felt. 💪

Through 3 games, he leads the B1G with 3.5 sacks. 🔶🔷

The Illini defense has a difference-maker off the edge.#Illini #KeepinItOrangeAndBlue #KIOB #famILLy #IlliniNation pic.twitter.com/usW2OjqqLc
— Keepin it Orange and Blue (@200_Columns) September 18, 2025

Jared Shlensky

Both offenses are humming, but what few are talking about is how good the defenses are. Illinois has allowed just 22 total points, and Indiana has given up just 23. I'd be surprised if either team allows more than 28 points come Saturday, but I'm taking the Hoosiers at home in a tight one. Indiana has won four of the past five in this matchup, and I like IU to do just enough offensively to come away with a win. Sorry, Illini fans, maybe ESPN's "College GameDay" will come to Champaign next year.