Illinois Football Favored vs. Western Illinois in Season Opener by ... How Much?

The numbers don't just favor the Illini – they predict a blowout of epic proportions by a seasoned, talented Big Ten club

Jul 22, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Illinois head coach Bret Bielema speaks to the media during the Big Ten NCAA college football media days at Mandalay Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images | Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

Illinois' season opener against Western Illinois is still 13 days away – scheduled for Friday, Aug. 29 at Champaign's Memorial Stadium (6:30 p.m. CT) – but the numbers are in. And, sheesh, are they something.

The Illini and Leathernecks are in different leagues, both literally and figuratively, so it should come as a surprise to no one that Illinois is favored. But favored like this?

#illini point spread v. Western Illinois Leathernecks is in

Illinois: 45.5 point favorite. That's big.

Last year, opener v. Eastern Illinois Panthers was 28.5 (they won 45-0)

EIU was coming off a good season, and Illinois wasn't. But 45.5 is massive v. WIU. CFP contender in… pic.twitter.com/bYl67moK4Y

— Carson Gourdie (@GourdieReport) August 16, 2025

What the numbers mean

A 45.5-point spread is massive, even for a Big Ten vs. Ohio Valley Conference matchup. And an over/under of 61.5? That's a lot of freakin' points.

And yet, think back to about this same time last year, when Illinois beat Eastern Illinois in the season opener. Final score: 45-0. On the other hand, the Illini haven't won a game by as many as 46 points since 2016, when they beat Murray State 52-3. And for what it's worth, Illinois went 3-9 that season.

But when you take both teams track records into account, the line doesn't necessarily seem that outrageous. Illinois is a perfect 3-0 all-time against WIU, including a point differential of 99-14 in those three matchups. Most recently, Illinois beat Western Illinois 34-14 back in 2018, and prior to that the Illini posted consecutive shutouts – 44-0 in 2015 and 21-0 in 2007 – over WIU.

And it's not like Illinois struggled to score last year. The Illini put up 45 points against EIU, hung 50 on Purdue and scored 38 against Michigan State, Rutgers and Northwestern. To top it off, Illinois brings back all five of its starting offensive lineman from last year and their starting quarterback in Luke Altmyer.

And the Leathernecks aren't exactly an FCS powerhouse, like, say, North Dakota State. WIU finished 4-8 last year and didn't win a game in 2022 or 2023. Not to mention, the Leathernecks haven't finished above .500 since 2017.

It will be interesting to see how the numbers may change ahead of kickoff, but don't be surprised if the point spread continues to move in favor of the Illini and if the over/under continues to go up.

More from Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illinois Football Offers Class of 2027 Offensive Tackle Davis Seaman

Two Doak Walker Candidates? What It Says About Illinois' Offense

Former Illini Jer'Zhan Newton Shines in Washington Commanders' Preseason Opener

Illinois Football Seeking to Flip Wisconsin Class of 2026 Commit Jack Janda

Illinois Stat of the Day: The Best Experience Edge in College Football