Indiana Basketball On NCAA Tournament Bubble Yet Again

Indiana has had four coaches in the last decade, and with a few exceptions, results have been all too similar in that span.

Following Tuesday's 81-60 loss at No. 12 Michigan State, which was sealed by a 19-0 Spartan run at the 11-minute mark of the second half, the Hoosiers fell to 12-5 overall and tied for eighth in the Big Ten at 3-3. It's only year one under coach Darian DeVries, who should be given ample time to build a program, but the season is beginning to take on a familiar feeling.

Indiana has missed the NCAA Tournament seven times in the last nine seasons, with the outliers being in 2022 as a No. 12 seed and 2023 as a No. 4 seed –– both under coach Mike Woodson. DeVries' Hoosiers have yet to win a Quad 1 game, and while there's plenty of time to pick them up, things are trending in the wrong direction.

Where Indiana stands in latest NCAA Tournament projection

Tucker DeVries Indiana Basketball — Michigan State forward Cameron Ward (3) defends Indiana forward Tucker Devries (12) during the first half at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Hoosiers fell to one of the last four team in, according to Joe Lunardi's latest projection. The eight bubble teams in Lunardi's current field include Wisconsin, USC, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Indiana, Ohio State, New Mexico and UCLA. While the first eight teams out of the field would be Baylor, TCU, Virginia Tech, Creighton, LSU, Stanford, San Diego State and Missouri.

Indiana fell to No. 36 in the NET rankings following Tuesday's loss, which puts them seventh among Big Ten teams and one of 10 in the top 45. On the bright side, four of Indiana's five losses have come against Quad 1 opponents –– the fifth came in Quad 2 –– which, on their own, doesn't hurt nearly as much as a Quad 3 or 4 loss would.

But if Indiana is going to solidify its tournament chances, it needs to pick up a Quad 1 win soon and add to its current total of just two Quad 2 wins. Because as it stands, seven of Indiana's 12 wins are in Quad 4, which doesn't help its resume much, if at all.

Indiana's nonconference schedule looked fairly strong going into the season, but Marquette and Kansas State have been worse than expected. Plus, Indiana lost to its only two ranked nonconference opponents in Kentucky and Louisville.

That adds to the importance of the final 14 Big Ten games, and Indiana will have several chances to boost its resume. Three of Indiana's seven home games are against Quad 1 opponents, including Iowa (21), Purdue (6) and Michigan State (13), according to current NET rankings, while six of its seven remaining road games are Quad 1 opportunities: Michigan (1), UCLA (48), USC (45), Illinois (10), Purdue (6) and Ohio State (40).

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