Indiana Bubble Watch: How Do The At-Large Resumes Compare For The NCAA Tournament?

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Twenty-four hours after Indiana bowed out of the Big Ten Tournament with a 72-59 loss to Oregon, the harsh reality has set in.

Indiana can’t influence its own fate. It is now an exercise in resume comparison.

That’s not the most comfortable place for Indiana. The Hoosiers’ resume is as conflicting as any team on the bubble. Indiana tends to do poorly in metric-based predictive rankings and fares well in results-based rankings. The NET ranking, closer to predictive than results-based, also frowns on the Hoosiers.

There’s also the vagaries of the Quad system. Teams in good conferences have more opportunities to play Quad 1 games than teams in lesser conferences. It then becomes a matter of whether someone places more stock in accumulative wins versus quality performance in terms of winning percentage.

As you’ll read, Indiana looks significantly better or worse against fellow bubble teams depending on which measures carry more weight in your own mind. It’s a subjective decision, one that will depend on what each committee member values. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out Sunday.

Here’s a look at how Indiana compares to competition on the bubble.

Boise State

Advantages Over Indiana – As it will be for all of the teams opposing Indiana on the bubble, Boise State has a superior NET ranking. The Broncos are No. 43, Indiana is No. 54. Boise State is 7-7 in Quad 1-2 games while Indiana is 8-13.

Indiana Advantage – The Hoosiers have double the amount of Quad 1 wins with four compared to Boise State. Indiana is better in results-based metrics like KPI, strength of record and wins against bubble teams. Indiana averages a 43 by those rankings. Boise State is 54.

Analysis – Boise State kept itself alive with a key Mountain West Tournament victory over fellow bubble team San Diego State on Thursday.

What harms the Broncos against any other bubble team is their penchant for bad losses. Boise State is the only team on the bubble with losses against teams in all four Quads. Indiana had no losses outside Quad 1, a big advantage for the Hoosiers in a head-to-head comparison.

Colorado State

Nique Clifford. — Colorado State Rams guard Nique Clifford (10) grabs a rebound against Utah State Aggies forward Tucker Anderson (2) in the second half at Moby Arena. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Advantages Over Indiana – A slightly better NET ranking at No. 52 against Indiana’s No. 54. Slightly superior average Kenpom and Torvik ranking at 48 versus Indiana’s average of 51.5. Colorado State is 8-7 in Quad 1-2 games against Indiana’s 8-13 record.

Indiana Advantage – The Hoosiers have four Quad 1 wins versus one for the Rams. Indiana fares better in results-based metrics as the Rams have an average in the mid-50s versus Indiana in the 40s.

Analysis – Indiana has proven itself against Quad 1 competition in a more meaningful way than Colorado State. Even by winning percentage, Indiana’s 4-13 record is better than Colorado State’s 1-5 mark, though not by much.

What Colorado State has going for it is a red-hot finish. The Rams have won eight in a row and have a chance for an additional Quad 1 win if it can beat Utah State in the Mountain West Tournament on Friday.

Recency bias isn’t supposed to matter, and recency records are stripped out of the official NCAA team sheets, but that doesn’t mean committee members won’t apply recent success in their subjective phases when they try to separate teams.

North Carolina

Advantages Over Indiana – The Tar Heels’ NET ranking is significantly better at No. 35 versus Indiana’s No. 54. The predictive metrics (Kenpom, Torvik) smile on North Carolina as both Kenpom and Torvik have the Tar Heels in the mid-30s versus Indiana’s average of 51.5 between the two analysts. North Carolina’s Quad 1-2 record (9-11) is better than Indiana’s (8-13). The Tar Heels played the 5th best non-conference schedule in the nation as opposed to Indiana’s 160th ranking.

Indiana Advantage – Indiana is overwhelmingly better in Quad 1 wins. The Hoosiers have four Quad 1 wins versus North Carolina’s single Quad 1 victory.

Analysis – North Carolina’s fate rides largely on whether it can defeat Duke in the ACC Tournament on Friday. The notion of late Quad 1 wins flipping NCAA Tournament at-large resumes flies in the face of the notion that recency bias isn’t supposed to matter, but we digress.

North Carolina has repeatedly shown it does not win games against elite competition. Indiana occasionally beats elite competition. In this sense, North Carolina’s solid strength of schedule works against it.

How much you value North Carolina over Indiana depends on how much you value NET rankings and predictive metrics. Should a school that did what was expected more often get a nod over a team that was able to reach some unexpected peaks with higher quality wins? Only the individual committee members can answer that question.

Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton (2) looks down during a free throw Wednesday, March 12, 2025, in a first round game at the 2025 TIAA Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Ohio State Buckeyes at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Hawkeyes defeated the Buckeyes, 77-70. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Advantages Over Indiana – Ohio State has a superior NET ranking at No. 41 as opposed to Indiana’s No. 54 spot. The Buckeyes have six Quad 1 wins compared to Indiana’s four.

Indiana Advantage – Indiana swept the Buckeyes in their season series. The Hoosiers have a better overall record (19-13) than Ohio State (17-15). Indiana finished a game ahead of Ohio State in the Big Ten and won the showdown between the two teams to determine that spot in the final game of the regular season. Indiana is 10 spots better than Ohio State in all of the main results-based metrics.

Analysis – There should really be no analysis to this. Ohio State was swept by Indiana in the season series, so if it comes to a tiebreaker between the two? There’s not a better measuring stick than that.

San Diego State

San Diego State Aztecs guard Nick Boyd (2) controls the ball as Colorado State Rams guard Ethan Morton (25) guards in the first half at Moby Arena. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Advantages Over Indiana – The Aztecs have a slightly better NET rankings at No. 51 as opposed to Indiana’s No. 54 ranking. San Diego State has a much better Quad 1-2 winning percentage than Indiana. The Aztecs are 8-8 vs. 8-13 for the Hoosiers.

Indiana Advantage – Indiana has one more Quad 1 win (four) than San Diego State. Playing in the Big Ten gives the Hoosiers a significantly better NET strength of schedule (27) than the Aztecs (62).

Analysis – The teams are close to inseparable in several areas. Their results-based metrics are almost identical. San Diego State (46) is one spot ahead of Indiana at Kenpom. There’s no one quality win that separates the teams – San Diego State beat Houston; Indiana won at Michigan State.

Both teams lost their conference tournament openers, and the Aztecs finished the season with a tepid three wins in six games. Indiana won four of its last six. Recent results aren’t supposed to matter, but committee members are human, and recent performance can influence their subjective decisions.

If it’s a choice between these two programs, it might depend on how much the committee values the accumulation of quality wins Indiana gets by playing in the Big Ten versus the better job the Aztecs did when they got similar opportunities.

Texas

Texas Longhorns forward Jayson Kent (25) reaches to block a shot from Oklahoma Sooners guard Duke Miles (15) in the second half of the Longhorns' game against the Sooners at the Moody Center in Austin, March 8, 2025. | Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Advantages Over Indiana – The Longhorns have a far better NET ranking (38 to 54) than Indiana. Texas also has more Quad 1 wins – seven to Indiana’s four. Texas averages a 45 ranking at Kenpom and Torvik, a bit better than Indiana.

Indiana Advantage – The Hoosiers didn’t suffer any Quad 2 losses while Texas had four. Indiana does better in the results-based rankings. Indiana is superior to Texas in the KPI ranking, strength of record and wins against bubble.

Analysis – Texas might be the latest case of a team that benefitted from opportunity. The Longhorns played 17 Quad 1 games, a signal of the SEC’s strength. That gives them the chance to compile Quad 1 wins in a way teams in other conferences, including the Big Ten, don’t.

On the other hand? Texas did win seven of those 17 opportunities. Their winning percentage in Quad 1 games is much better than Indiana’s.

Texas might have also done what Indiana (and a few other teams chronicled here) failed to do – they won their win-and-get-in game against Texas A&M on Thursday in the SEC Tournament. Recent games aren’t supposed to matter, but they do, and there is something to be said for handling tournament pressure.

Xavier

Ryan Conwell. — Xavier Musketeers guard Ryan Conwell (7) reacts after being fouled in the second half of the NCAA Big East Conference Tournament quarterfinals game between the Xavier Musketeers and Marquette Golden Eagles, Thursday, March 13, 2025, at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Golden Eagles won 89-87. | Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Advantages Over Indiana – The Musketeers have a better NET ranking at No. 46 over Indiana’s No. 54. Xavier has a better Quad 1-2 winning percentage (9-11) than Indiana (8-13).

Indiana Advantage – The Hoosiers have double the amount of Quad 1 wins (four) than Xavier. Indana is 4-13 in Quad 1 games while Xavier’s 2-9.

Analysis – The at-large case for Xavier is weak. Recency bias isn’t supposed to matter, but Xavier hasn’t had a Quad 1 win since Jan. 25.

The predictive metrics favor Xavier; the results-based metrics mostly favor the Hoosiers. Their performance against common opponents was similar – both beat South Carolina and Providence and both lost to Michigan – though Indiana’s loss was much closer. Both teams lost their conference tournament openers in win-and-get-in scenarios.

Neither team has a great resume. The difference between comparing Indiana to Xavier versus comparing Indiana to San Diego State is in Quad 1 opportunities. Indiana played 17 Quad 1 games, Xavier played 11. That’s plenty of opportunity for the Musketeers to compile enough Quad 1 wins to overcome a program with a resume like Indiana’s, but Xavier didn’t do it.

Indiana’s Quad 1 winning percentage (.235 to .181) is better too, though that’s damning with faint praise as neither program did much winning against the best teams on their schedule. It will be interesting to see how the committee splits hairs.