Where Indiana Sits On NCAA Tournament Bubble Entering Saturday’s Games

Here’s a look at recent NCAA Tournament projections and Saturday's games that are relevant to the Hoosiers’ hopes of reaching the big dance.

Indiana guard Anthony Leal (3) gives a high five to center Oumar Ballo (11) against Oregon during the Big Ten Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. | Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The wait continues for Indiana on Saturday with several key conference tournament games.

Indiana went one and done in the Big Ten Tournament, falling 72-59 to Oregon on Thursday in Indianapolis. The Hoosiers were confident in their NCAA Tournament chances despite the loss, but now their fate is in the hands of other bubble teams, bid thieves and the selection committee.

Texas and North Carolina losing Friday helped Indiana, as did wins by VCU, Memphis, Liberty and UC San Diego. But Boise State’s win over top-seeded New Mexico hurt. 

Indiana is in the field according to 97 of 113 sites on bracketmatrix.com as of Saturday morning, with an average seed of 11.2. Here’s a look at where the Hoosiers landed in updated projections.

ESPN

• Indiana is listed as the third team out, behind North Carolina and Texas. Lunardi’s last four teams in are West Virginia, San Diego State, Xavier and Boise State.

FOX

• Indiana is one of the last four teams in, along with West Virginia, San Diego State and North Carolina. The first four out are Texas, Xavier, Ohio State and UC Irvine. In this projection, Indiana is a No. 11 seed and playing against North Carolina in the First Four.

The Sporting News

• Indiana is one of the last four teams in, along with Boise State, Texas and North Carolina. The first four out include Xavier, San Diego State, Ohio State and Colorado State. In this projection, Indiana is a No. 12 seed and playing in the First Four.

The Athletic

• Indiana is the last team in, behind Texas, Boise State and Oklahoma. The first four out in this projection are North Carolina, Xavier, Colorado State and Ohio State. Indiana is a No. 12 seed playing against Texas in the First Four.

Delphi Bracketology

• Indiana is the third team out, behind Texas and North Carolina but ahead of UC Irvine. The last four in are Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Boise State and Xavier. 

Indiana can’t do anything to improve its case anymore. All it can do is hope for positive results around the country and wait to see if its name is called Sunday at 6 p.m. ET. Here’s a list of Saturday’s games relevant to Indiana’s tournament chances.

No. 1 VCU vs. No. 4 Loyola Chicago: 1 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network

• VCU is the No. 1 seed in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, so Indiana should be rooting for the Rams. If VCU gets knocked out, its resume could be good enough for an at-large bid, which would give the Atlantic 10 two bids. 

No. 1 Memphis vs. No. 4 Tulane: 3 p.m. ET on ESPN2

• This is another bid-stealing situation like the game above. The American Athletic Association would be a one-bid league if No. 1 seed Memphis runs the table, so the Hoosiers would not like to see a Tulane upset victory here.

No. 2 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Boise State: 6 p.m. ET on CBS

• Indiana may not have a strong rooting interest in this one after the key outcome happened Friday night – Boise State beat No. 1 seed New Mexico. The Lobos will still earn an at-large bid, and the winner of Saturday’s Mountain West title game will get an automatic bid. Indiana will be battling the loser for an at-large bid, and both have similar resumes.

No. 1 Liberty vs. No. 2 Jacksonville State: 8:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network

• Liberty may not have much of an argument to get in as an at-large team if it loses, ranked No. 64 in the NET with a 0-0 record in Quad 1. Its case is certainly weaker than VCU and Memphis, as mentioned above. But just to be safe, Indiana should hope Liberty takes care of business in the Conference USA Tournament title game.

No. 1 UC San Diego vs. No. 2 UC Irvine: 9:40 p.m. ET on ESPN2

• Both teams in the Big West Tournament title game have a case for an at-large bid. UCSD’s is stronger, though, so Indiana should hope the top seed prevails. At No. 60, UC Irvine is close behind No. 54 Indiana in the NET.

Other mid-majors like Yale, Bryant, Norfolk State, Akron and Utah Valley are No. 1 seeds in their conference tournaments. Indiana should be pulling for them, though there’s little risk of those conferences getting multiple bids.

Related stories on Indiana basketball

• COMPARING IU TO OTHER BUBBLE TEAMS: Indiana’s NCAA Tournament fate is uncertain after the Big Ten Tournament loss to Oregon. How do the Hoosiers compare against other teams on the bubble? CLICK HERE

• GOODE'S CASE FOR 5TH YEAR: Indiana senior forward Luke Goode is petitioning for a fifth year of eligibility in 2025-26, due to an injury during his sophomore year at Illinois. Given the chance, he’d love to return to Indiana. CLICK HERE

• INDIANA ON BUBBLE: Indiana lost 72-59 to Oregon Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament, putting its NCAA Tournament hopes at risk. CLICK HERE

• BALLO RIPS 'FAKE' IU FANS: Oumar Ballo pulled no punches as described how hard it was for himself and his teammates to battle through the worst criticism from segments of the Indiana men's basketball fanbase. CLICK HERE

• GAME STORY: Indiana shooting was not consistent enough for the Hoosiers to get past Oregon as the Ducks prevailed 72-59 on Thursday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on day two of the Big Ten Tournament. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT WOODSON SAID: Indiana coach Mike Woodson's postgame press conference comments after the loss against Oregon. CLICK HERE.