ESPN FPI Predicts Indiana's Chance Against USC in Top-20 Showdown

Indiana football had a week off to rest, regroup and prepare for the final stretch of the regular season. ESPN's computers, meanwhile, have become a little less confident in the Hoosiers.

Indiana returns to action Saturday against USC in a top-20 showdown at Memorial Stadium. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, but the Trojans enter Bloomington riding the momentum of a win over Ohio State.

While Indiana remains the favorite, ESPN's latest Football Power Index projections suggest Saturday's matchup could be competitive.

ESPN FPI favors Indiana, but win probability drops

Indiana enters the week ranked No. 8 nationally in ESPN's FPI, while USC checks in at No. 16.

The model gives the Hoosiers a 78.2% chance of defeating the Trojans, down from 86.7% in its previous projection. That's an 8.5-percentage-point drop, although Indiana remains a favorite.

ESPN's SP+ model shares that confidence, projecting a 31-20 Indiana victory and giving the Hoosiers a 74% probability of winning.

Oddsmakers see a somewhat closer contest. Indiana opened as approximately a 10-point favorite, but the line had moved to around 7.5 by Monday morning.

It's worth noting that FPI's outlook for Indiana hasn't changed dramatically from the preseason, when the model gave the Hoosiers a 77.3% chance of defeating USC.

Still, the recent movement is notable. Indiana's chances have dipped despite not playing a game last weekend, with USC's win over Ohio State and the Hoosiers' recent offensive struggles providing plenty of intrigue entering Saturday.

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What the projections mean for Indiana

For all the numbers favoring Indiana, USC presents a different challenge than the Hoosiers have faced in recent weeks.

The Trojans boast one of the nation's most dangerous passing attacks, averaging nearly 300 yards through the air per game. Quarterback Jayden Maiava leads an explosive Lincoln Riley offense capable of testing even the best defenses.

Indiana's defense certainly belongs in that conversation.

The Hoosiers entered their bye week ranked No. 1 nationally in defensive SP+ and fifth in ESPN's defensive efficiency metric. The defense has been the foundation of Indiana's success this season.

But the matchup might be just as important when Indiana has the ball.

USC ranks 66th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 24.2 points per game, and has been especially vulnerable against the pass.

That could present an opportunity for an Indiana offense that has struggled to find consistency over the past several weeks.

With Cignetti yet to settle publicly on a starting quarterback for Saturday, Indiana's offensive outlook remains one of the biggest questions entering the matchup.

The computers expect Indiana to come out on top Saturday. Whether the Hoosiers can turn those favorable projections into a more convincing performance remains to be seen.

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