Where Indiana Football Ranks In ESPN FPI During Bye Week, And Does It Matter?

Indiana remains firmly in the College Football Playoff picture, but ESPN's latest metrics reveal a sizable gap between the Hoosiers' defense and special teams.

Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti during the Indiana versus Minnesota football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Indiana football has spent much of the past month finding increasingly creative ways to win football games. Now, the Hoosiers finally have a chance to catch their breath.

After surviving Minnesota in overtime Saturday, Indiana enters its bye week with three regular-season games remaining and its College Football Playoff aspirations still very much intact.

But what do the computers make of Curt Cignetti's bunch after a stretch of games that have been anything but pretty?

ESPN's latest Football Power Index and SP+ rankings offer an interesting and unsurprising picture of where the Hoosiers stand, from their championship chances to a glaring weakness that continues to threaten their season.

Indiana slips in FPI, but playoff odds remain strong

Indiana dropped two spots to No. 8 in ESPN's updated FPI rankings, falling behind LSU and Texas, which climbed to fifth and seventh, respectively.

That ranking stands in contrast to the College Football Playoff selection committee's initial top 25, released Tuesday night. Indiana checked in at No. 4, the highest-ranked Big Ten team, putting the Hoosiers in position for a first-round bye if the season ended today.

Despite the dip in FPI, the computers remain bullish on Indiana's postseason chances.

FPI gives the Hoosiers an 84.6% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff, the second-highest probability nationally behind only Miami (98.3%).

Indiana also has a 38% chance of winning the Big Ten, trailing only Ohio State (42.8%). While the Hoosiers have already suffered a loss to the Buckeyes, the conference race remains very much alive.

As for the bigger prize, FPI gives Indiana a 15.9% chance of reaching the national championship game and a 7.2% chance of winning it all. Both figures rank fifth in the country, behind Miami, Notre Dame, Georgia and Ohio State.

The model also gives Indiana a 33.5% chance of winning out, which would send the Hoosiers into the postseason at 11-1.

That might seem modest for a team with just one loss, but Indiana's recent performances have hardly inspired visions of smooth sailing. The Hoosiers have needed overtime to beat both Michigan and Minnesota, with their defense repeatedly coming to the rescue.

Still, Indiana ranks fourth in the nation in strength of record despite playing the nation's 31st-toughest schedule. Its remaining schedule ranks 47th in difficulty, according to FPI.

SP+ sees an elite Indiana defense

Indiana fares even better in ESPN's SP+ rankings, checking in at No. 6 nationally behind Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU and Miami.

Unlike traditional rankings, SP+ is designed to predict future performances based on opponent-adjusted efficiency rather than reward teams simply for winning games.

The Hoosiers rank No. 1 nationally in defensive SP+, a reflection of a unit that has become the backbone of this year's team. Indiana also ranks fifth in defensive efficiency according to FPI.

Offensively, however, the Hoosiers have considerably more room for improvement. Indiana ranks 27th in offensive SP+ and 20th in FPI's offensive efficiency metric.

Quarterback Josh Hoover's struggles have contributed to that offensive decline, with Grant Wilson replacing him at halftime against Minnesota and ultimately delivering the game-winning touchdown pass in overtime.

The Hoosiers have demonstrated they can win without their offense firing on all cylinders. Whether that's a sustainable formula against the nation's best teams is another question entirely.

Special teams remain Indiana's Achilles' heel

If there's one area where both models agree Indiana has a serious problem, it's special teams.

The Hoosiers rank 124th nationally in special teams efficiency according to FPI and 90th in SP+.

Those numbers aren't surprising after Saturday's performance against Minnesota.

Punter Billy Gowers produced punts of just 15 and 27 yards, while kicker Nicolas Radicic had a 52-yard field goal blocked and missed another attempt from 31 yards.

Indiana's defense has proven capable of competing with virtually anyone in the country, and the offense has enough playmakers to make life difficult for opposing defenses.

The special teams unit, however, remains a liability that could prove costly when the margins become even thinner in November and December.