Have Indiana's Expectations Already Changed? Let's Take a Closer Look

It took roughly two weeks for us to rethink things we thought were true for seven months. Bless you, college football. Never change.

Or rather, continue to always change our minds just a week or two into the season.

The same is true with Indiana's schedule. We can already infer a few things based on what we've seen so far through Week 2.

Yes, IU's schedule now looks more favorable

How do we know that? Well, if normal clock rules applied, both of IU's two toughest opponents would already have a loss.

Of course, one of those teams was Michigan, who needed a flubbed replay review system to survive Western Michigan. Despite what Bryce Underwood did to avoid getting benched against Oklahoma, he completed nine passes.

Let's not pretend that Michigan's offense has suddenly righted the ship, even though it got a handful of big plays to get past an elite Oklahoma defense.

The other team was Ohio State, AKA the squad that completely collapsed in the fourth quarter against Texas.

Does losing at Texas mean that Ohio State is suddenly an automatic victory for IU? Of course not.

What's worth taking away from that game was the potential issues for the preseason No. 1 Buckeyes were confirmed with that blown 20-point lead. The lack of alphas on the defensive side of the ball was evident, as was the lack of non-Jeremiah Smith options in an Arthur Smith offense.

Plenty of the second-half throws that Julian Sayin made against Texas felt like what we saw him do against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.

That's not to say that it's a guarantee that he or IU will match their performances, but consider the alternative.

If the alternative was that Ohio State cruised and won that Texas game 30-3, we're having a different conversation. That didn't happen.

Instead, the Big Ten now feels more wide open than ever

Oregon might not be on IU's schedule, but as it relates to the path to reach the Big Ten Championship, one of the biggest potential hurdles has been a doormat so far.

Make of that what you will. Seeing Oregon struggle in the trenches doesn't suddenly suggest it'll even get a chance to flip last year's result(s) against IU.

But let's get back to the schedule because that's really what we're talking about.

IU's attempt to reach a third consecutive 12-team Playoff was likely going to have to include at least a split of those aforementioned matchups, but it also included another challenging two-week stretch in November.

As of this moment, it's hard to say with certainty that USC and/or Washington are definitively better than their original projections. USC has feasted on Group of 5 competition while Washington was fortunate to avoid disaster in favorable matchups against Washington State and Utah State.

If USC can hand Oregon a second loss in late September, then we can have the "contender" conversation about the Trojans and whether they'll be a formidable foe when they come to Bloomington. Until then, let's not erect a Jayden Maiava statue just yet.

USC would then simply take Oregon's place among the Big Ten contenders. If anything, perhaps that would help an IU team sneak in another quality win against a USC squad that has yet to prove that it can win meaningful Big Ten road games when it travels to the Midwest.

(USC is 2-4 in Big Ten road games that are against non-West Coast teams, and the lone victories came last year at 2-10 Purdue and 7-6 Nebraska.)

It's possible that the schedule has opened up, but it's also still possible IU faces a trio of top-10 teams this year. It would make for a slate that's closer to 2025 than 2024, which would suggest 10-2 would be safe to make the field. We'll have time to dissect whether that's accurate.

For now, let's just appreciate that IU hasn't had the warts that other Big Ten contenders have shown

Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon fans all have to feel worse now than they did in August.

Does IU belong in that group? Eh, if IU can't run the ball against Western Kentucky a week after Georgia got every blade of grass that it wanted, but even that would be a fixable issue with a coaching staff that has an impeccable history of establishing the run.

Defending a mobile quarterback this weekend will also be something to watch. I'm not sure that checking that box this weekend means that IU is in the clear there, but it beats the alternative.

You could argue that other Big Ten teams are benefiting by founding out what their weaknesses are, whereas IU won't get a team who can expose that until Ohio State comes to town. We'll play the results with that.

In the meantime, let's appreciate that the spotlight is off the defending champs and their 18-game winning streak. It's instead on a group of Big Ten contenders that might not be as dominant as originally expected.

My, how quickly things have changed.

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