Josh Hoover's First 4 Games at Indiana: The Good, the Bad and the Stats

Josh Hoover came into Indiana knowing that he'd be stepping into bigger shoes than anybody in the country.

It wasn't just that he was set to replace Fernando Mendoza, AKA the Heisman Trophy winner who led Indiana to a national championship en route to becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

It was that, including Kurtis Rourke, who finished 9th in the Heisman voting in 2024, the bar for an IU quarterback under Curt Cignetti couldn't have been higher.

Has Hoover lived up to that so far? That's debatable.

After all, the Hoosiers are 4-0 and ranked No. 6 in the AP Top 25, which is exactly where they entered the season. Whether that's deserved is a different subject. A favorable matchup on Saturday against Rutgers should yield a productive day at the office for Hoover and the IU offense.

But what do we know about his body of work so far?

I realize that's still a bit skewed because of IU's light non-conference schedule. The Hoosiers have only faced one Power Conference team, whereas the vast majority of the contenders have already had multiple such games.

Still, though. Beyond just the Heisman Trophy discussion, there are positives and negative stats to take from this 4-game sample size (stats via PFF).

Negative stat No. 1: Hoover has the highest pressure-to-sack percentage among qualified Big Ten quarterbacks at 38.5%

That's not ideal. In other words, when Hoover is getting pressured, there's a decent chance that he's taking a negative play.

It's worth mentioning that his pressured-drop-back rate is easily the best among starting Big Ten quarterbacks at just 14.4%, and he's only faced 13 pressured drop-backs in four games.

Why didn't I save that for the positive stats, you ask? Well, because I don't necessarily think Hoover deserves the majority of the credit for that. The offensive line has won favorable matchups and allowed an average of 3.25 pressured dropbacks per game against lesser competition.

It's a negative because while that 38.5% pressure-to-sack rate has led to just five sacks, it's also fair to say that the 14.4% pressured drop-back rate will rise as the competition ramps up.

So far, we don't have any idea how Hoover will perform under pressure in this offense because he's only 2-for-6 for 51 yards on pressured drop-backs. Just for a little perspective, there are 163 FBS quarterbacks who have completed at least three passes on pressured drop-backs, and Hoover isn't one of them.

Negative stat No. 2: Hoover is 12th among qualified Big Ten quarterbacks with a 63.6% adjusted completion percentage on intermediate throws (10-19 yards)

Hoover is essentially completing those throws at the same rate as Bryce Underwood. That has to change in Big Ten play. Those are the spots that allow IU's offense to get in rhythm. When you excel in the intermediate range, it forces defenses into lighter boxes to help open up the running lanes.

Last year, Mendoza was pinpoint accurate in those spots. His adjusted completion percentage on intermediate throws was 68.6%, which was No. 2 in the Big Ten behind only Julian Sayin.

That might not sound like a drastic difference, but then you remember the competition that Hoover has faced compared to the gauntlet that Mendoza did that against over the course of 16 games. Hoover shouldn't be that low this early in the season, especially with how little pressure he's faced.

In 2024, IU's quarterbacks had 14 touchdowns on intermediate throws. Last year, that number was even higher at 16 such scores. This year, Hoover and the Hoosiers have only recorded two touchdowns on those intermediate throws.

Sure, part of that is no longer having Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt. Those guys combined for 10 intermediate touchdowns in 2025.

Charlie Becker and Nick March only have eight such targets apiece in that area of the field. For whatever reason, IU hasn't been able to find intermediate consistency with the 2026 version of this offense.

Negative stat No. 3: Hoover is No. 18 among 19 qualified Big Ten quarterbacks with a 106.1 passer rating on 2nd down

I get it. It'd be much worse if that number applied to first down and not second down. But at the same time, we're talking about avoiding those high-pressure spots on third down and making life easier on the offense. Against favorable competition, Hoover and Co. haven't done that.

He's No. 18 in the Big Ten with 135 passing yards on second down, and sure, he's only attempted 22 passes in those spots. IU's top two backs, Lee Beebe Jr. and Turbo Richard, have a combined 41 runs on 2nd down, so clearly, there's a philosophical approach.

Not to make everything about Hoover's predecessor, but remember that Mendoza was No. 1 among Power Conference quarterbacks with a 185.2 QB rating on 2nd down. It's what helped keep the Hoosiers in such favorable down-and-distances on third down.

Hoover has to improve in that area, or else there'll be a whole lot more slogs in Big Ten play.

Positive stat No. 1: Hoover hasn't thrown an interception and he's got just 2 turnover-worthy plays

I'm not sure if you heard, but much was said about Hoover and his propensity to turn the ball over. Much was said by his former coach at TCU, Sonny Dykes, and then much was said by Curt Cignetti about IU's surroundings being the remedy to correct that.

Well, through the first month of the season, we're still waiting on Hoover to throw an interception. That's a huge early box checked.

On top of that, he's got just two turnover-worthy plays. There are 62 Power Conference quarterbacks who have attempted at least 80 passes, and 19 of them have two or fewer turnover-worthy plays.

I know what you're thinking — guys who haven't been turnover-prone are usually more conservative and they don't stretch the field. Fair. But among those 19 Power Conference quarterbacks who have at least 80 pass attempts, Hoover has the highest average depth of target at 12.7 yards.

Consider that a reminder that when you've got Becker, you can attack downfield in unique ways.

Positive stat No. 2: He's got a perfect NFL QB rating (158.3) on play-action

No other Power Conference quarterback (min. 10 play-action attempts) can say that. That's a nice feather in Hoover's early-season cap.

We know that the play-action passing attack is a staple of the Cignetti/Mike Shanahan offense. If that's a weakness, you're in trouble. With Hoover, it's been a major strength so far.

In those spots, completed 23-of-29 passes for 469 yards (16.2 yards/attempt) and six touchdown passes. On top of that, his average depth of target on play-action passes is 16.2 yards. In other words, Hoover is hitting that back foot and letting it rip in those spots.

JOSH HOOVER IS COOKING 🧑‍🍳

He hits his Davion Chandler for his 4TH TD of the game for @IndianaFootball! pic.twitter.com/diVy4H6on4
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 5, 2026

The respect that defenses have for IU in the run game will likely continue to give Hoover those favorable looks on play-action.

Positive stat No. 3: Hoover has a 154.6 NFL QB rating when targeting Charlie Becker

That's tied for No. 4 among Power Conference players with at least 20 targets.

Did Hoover miss Becker twice downfield on that Northwestern game? Yes. Have the two otherwise been virtually in lockstep with one another? Also yes.

But we knew that entering the season, Hoover getting on the same page as last year's breakout star was going to be a major point of emphasis, especially knowing how favorably the schedule started. Becker has six touchdowns and has picked up exactly where he left off with Fernando Mendoza.

I was surprised some pushed back that I had Indiana WR Charlie Becker in the top-10 of my preseason top-50 draft board.

Big, fast and hard to cover. What's not to like about this guy? pic.twitter.com/9SbPVyHs20
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 5, 2026

As you saw on that throw and a few others, Hoover is still learning how to avoid under-throwing the speedy wideout. But at the very least, he's given his guy a chance to make a play, which Becker is doing at the catch-point as well as anyone in the sport.

Becker has been a more consistent player than decorated Michigan State transfer Nick Marsh, though he does have 12 catches in the last two games and his dominant blocking in the Northwestern game was essential for the Hoosiers.

What's the takeaway? Hoover has been good, not great so far

Perhaps you could look at what Hoover has done and say that he's shown enough to keep IU in the Big Ten title race. You could also look at his body of work and say that he'll have to improve in some key areas if a repeat season is in store.

However you spin it, Hoover has the Hoosiers at 4-0 in a post-Mendoza world. Life could be a whole lot worse in Bloomington.

It's up to Hoover to keep the good times rolling.

Add us as a preferred source on Google