Iowa Basketball Trails Big Ten Peers in NCAA Tournament Projections

Alright, Iowa, now do it again.

You were the darlings of the NCAA Tournament last year and made a magical run, capturing America's attention as a ragtag group of transfer portal additions and overlooked contributors.

Can you do it again in Ben McCollum's second year with a roster, aside from the massive loss of Bennett Stirtz, that arguably looks better on paper?

Going back to the Elite 8 may be a tall order for Iowa. It is for any team in the country. Getting that far requires a bit of luck, a good draw, and some magic.

What doesn't require luck, but rather a confirmation that this program is turning a corner, is simply a return to the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa is in the field... barely

Mar 26, 2026; San Jose, CA, USA; The NCAA March Madness logo is seen on a basketball in the first half between the Texas Longhorns and the Purdue Boilermakers during a Sweet Sixteen game of the West Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

As we know, college sports are experiencing roster and talent turnover like never before with the transfer portal and NIL. No teams are the same from year to year.

That turnover is being viewed as a detriment to the Iowa Hawkeyes. And according to ESPN, that turnover and change have Iowa barely in the field.

Iowa is making the newly expanded 76-team tournament by the skin of its teeth, landing as a No. 10 seed, playing against No. 7 Miami in ESPN's latest bracketology.

What Iowa's NCAA Tournament projection means

Mar 25, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum speaks during a practice session press conference ahead of the south regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

For a head coach like Ben McCollum, who has won at every single stop, this projection feels a bit low for the Hawkeyes. I mean, last year they were comfortably in as a No. 9 seed, and now they are dropping two seed lines to a play-in game?

The clearest explanation is that Bennett Stirtz was THAT important to Iowa. His departure could create an offensive gap too large for Iowa to fill unless transfer portal additions and recruits step up.

While they are transfers, the pressure is on Ty'Reek Coleman and Andrew McKeever to perform quickly. Also joining the roster is a pair of four-star talents, Jaidyn Coon and Ethan Harris, who could provide reinforcements on the offensive end.

The rest of the Big Ten's NCAA Tournament projections

Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) looks on in the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini during an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

To no surprise, the Big Ten once again is ruling the field of 76 (as gross as that number is). The Big Ten is tied with the SEC with 13 teams in the field currently. Led by the defending champions, the Michigan Wolverines, the Big Ten has a healthy showing.

No. 1 Illinois
No. 2 Michigan
No. 2 Michigan State
No. 6 Purdue
No. 6 USC
No. 6 Nebraska
No. 7 UCLA
No. 8 Indiana
No. 9 Ohio State
No. 9 Wisconsin
No. 10 Iowa
No. 10 Oregon

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