Iowa Remains Safe Bet to Make NCAA Tournament

The Iowa Hawkeyes have lost five of their last seven games and are trending in the wrong direction at the worst possible time.

That said, their win over No. 9 Nebraska on February 17 is their saving grace.

This team sits at 20-10 (10-9) with one game remaining. It just so happens to be against the same Cornhuskers team they beat at Carver, but now they must go on the road and take care of business.

Fresh off a 71-68 loss to No. 3 Michigan, not all hope is lost. They're in the midst of their worst stretch of the season, but this team looks to still be in contention to make the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan Loss Didn't Push Iowa Out of NCAA Tournament

Final from CHA | No. 3 Michigan 71, Iowa 68
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 6, 2026

At the end of the day only two teams have taken down Michigan this season. The Wolverines are one of the best teams in the entire country as they went a perfect 10-0 on the road in B1G play, something that doesn't even seem possible.

Iowa felt their wrath at Carver in a game that featured plenty of moments where the Hawkeyes could've tied the game late or even taken the lead. There's no point in looking back on that loss now as there's nothing else that can be done.

Ending the year on a three-game skid would be far from ideal, but that's the situation Iowa has put themselves in. Their resume isn't exactly going to work to their benefit, but losing to a pair of Top 10 teams in March is completely justifiable.

"Hawkeyes Aren't in Too Much Danger"

Iowa F Cam Manyaw — Iowa forward Cam Manyawu (3) high-fives teammates after fouling out of a game against the Michigan Wolverines March 5, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"The Hawkeyes aren't in too much danger."

That is a direct quote from ESPN's Neil Paine who pointed out this team's trio of Quad 1A losses. Three of their five recent losses have been to ranked opponents, though it should be noted Wisconsin is no longer ranked. That said, the Badgers are one of two teams to take down Michigan this season.

Paine said Iowa "has a consensus 93% at-large probability" which means it would take quite a lot for them to not make the tournament. At the end of the day it's not like he's the one on the committee, but all signs are pointing towards Iowa ending their NCAA Tournament drought.

Even though their non-conference schedule wasn't that tough, they have a resume that sits in the mid-30s and are Top 25 in ESPN's average of predictive ratings. All of these numbers are helping Iowa's case to make the tournament, something that first year head coach Ben McCollum said was the ultimate goal.

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