Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Thursday, March 5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a bubble team to make the NCAA Tournament, but they have a chance to lock up a spot tonight if they can pull off a big upset against the No. 3 ranked team in the country, the Michigan Wolverines.

Michigan has already secured the Big Ten regular season title and the Wolverines are well on their way to getting a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Will that affect how they play in tonight's road game? Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this Big Ten showdown.

Michigan vs. Iowa Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Michigan -8.5 (-110)
Iowa +8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Michigan -385
Iowa +300

Total

OVER 146.5 (-110)
UNDER 146.5 (-110)

Michigan vs. Iowa How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 5
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
Venue: Carver-Hawkeye Arena
How to Watch (TV): Peacock
Michigan Record: 27-2 (17-1 in Big Ten)
Iowa Record: 20-9 (10-8 in Big Ten)

Michigan vs. Iowa Betting Trends

Michigan is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Michigan's last five games
Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. Michigan
Iowa is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Iowa's last five games
The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams

Michigan vs. Iowa Key Player to Watch

Bennett Stirtz, G - Iowa Hawkeyes

Bennett Stirtz is leading the Hawkeyes in points per game, averaging 20.5, while also leading the team in assists per game, averaging 4.5, and steals per game, averaging 1.4. Not only is he their main offensive piece, but he also plays a significant role on the other side of the court. When he brings his best stuff, Iowa can compete with any team in the country. Michigan will have to find a way to shut him down tonight.

Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

In today's edition of Daily Dunk, I wrote about why I'm taking Iowa with the points tonight:

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a lot better team than their record, and the betting market, gives them credit for. They rank 18th in effective field goal percentage and 56th in defensive efficiency. While there's no denying Michigan is better than them in both those areas, ranking seventh and third, I don't think it's enough to justify an 8.5-point spread on the road.

Michigan is also quietly dealing with a turnover issue. The Wolverines rank 169th in turnovers per possession, coughing up the ball on 16.2% of their possessions. By comparison, Iowa turns the ball over on just 14.7% of its possessions.

That's not enough of a difference to make the argument that Iowa will win this game outright, but it's another factor that makes me think the Hawkeyes covering as 8.5-point home underdogs is the bet to make.

Pick: Iowa +8.5 (-110)

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