Seeing the Light in Iowa's Recent Losses

The Iowa Hawkeyes, coming hot off three straight losses, have dropped to 12-5 beyond the halfway of head coach Ben McCollum's first season behind the wheel. In addition to expectedly falling from their previous AP Top 20 standing, the Hawkeyes' 2-4 conference tally, winless road record and empty box in the way of Quad 1 victories has left the team with an ugly, familiar feeling.

As the NCAA Tournament looms just two months away, a previously respected Iowa team now has to prove they have a place beyond the regular season. With few ranked opponents remaining on their schedule - meaning few opportunities to secure an ever-elusive signature win to hang their hats on - the timer has officially started to tick on a successful Hawkeyes season.

All the same, even in admitting that Iowa's losing streak has re-contextualized their season, one underlying pattern suggests that the program (and fans) may have a little more time before the sky truly begins to fall. After all, the Hawkeyes aren't dropping games to any and all competition.

The One Promising Catch

Of Iowa's five losses, four of them have come at the unrelenting hands of top 15 opponents, according to KenPom metrics. To boot, given the team's staggering, winless count on the road, three of those four highfalutin losses have also come on the road.

The Hawkeyes' lone loss at home came against the Illinois Fighting Illini in a fashion, much like (most of) the rest of these losses, that saw Iowa in it all the way until the unfortunate end.

While losses are losses, and moral victories certainly don't fly in this specific nest, it does the team ample favors to know that they're falling short to a handful of the country's most formidable opponents.

4 of Iowa's 5 losses per Kenpom:

#3 Away
#4 Away
#5
#12 Away
— STHF (@Zhoops44) January 15, 2026

As Iowa enters the latter portion of their 2025-26 campaign, the biggest catalyst when it comes to closing the gap between high hopes and grounded expectation will be winning the games that they're supposed to win.

Meet Expectations, If Not Exceed Them

The team's recent loss to Minnesota on the road is the perfect example. After entering the game favored, Iowa let the B1G home whistle and hostile environment get the best of them.

If the Hawkeyes fail to punch up, they'll have to make sure their lower-ranked opponents fail to do the same against them also. By this metric - maybe, Iowa can manage to sneak into March Madness. Once they slot into the bracket, as every college basketball fan knows, anything can happen.

McCollum and his Hawkeyes just have to get there.

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