ESPN FPI Shows Iowa Football's Outlook Remains Strong After Ohio State Loss

Losing to Ohio State isn't ideal, but it's not the worst thing that can happen to a team. ESPN FPI gives the Hawkeyes some grace.

Iowa Hawkeyes kicker Caden Buhr (92) high fives Iowa Hawkeyes punter Tanner Philpott (35) after making a field goal against the Ohio State Buckeyes Oct. 3, 2026 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

At 4-1, everything is in front of the Iowa Hawkeyes. This record at this point in the season, which includes splitting games against Michigan and Ohio State, plus a Cy-Hawk win, is a success for the Hawkeyes.

Ahead of Iowa's trip to Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies on Friday night, a game that has suddenly become a very big game for both teams, as the urgency is clear and evident, let's dig into where Iowa stands in the updated ESPN FPI rankings.

ESPN FPI drops Iowa out of the top 25

One week after finally cracking ESPN FPI's top 25, the Hawkeyes are out just as quickly. That's not the biggest story to me, though. While Iowa is on the outside of the top 25, ESPN FPI didn't punish Iowa overly harshly.

Iowa fell only to No. 26 in the updated ESPN FPI rankings.

ESPN FPI Predictions for Iowa Football

The loss to Ohio State didn't send the sky falling on the Hawkeyes. And that is how it should be. Iowa lost to one of the country's top teams. There's no shame in that. It's not like Iowa got upset as a two-touchdown favorite.

Iowa remains more than in position for a bowl game and hitting the eight-win mark yet again. What stands out is that Iowa's College Football Playoff chances did take approximately a 10% dip this week, putting even more pressure on this week's game at Washington.

Projected Record: 8.1 -3.9

Chance to Win Out: 2.1%

Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 97.0%

Chance to Win the Big Ten: 0.8%

Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 12.4%

Chance to Make the National Championship: 0.4%

Chance to Win the National Championship: 0.1%

Riley Donald's Quick Thoughts

For as questionable as it was that the ESPN FPI was so hesitant to rank Iowa in the top 25, and forced Iowa to win on the road at Michigan to finally be let in, there is some sake of reassurance that Iowa wasn't overly punished for a loss to Ohio State.

With a night game at Washington awaiting, a win here would thrust Iowa firmly back into the top 25. Sure, that's much easier said than done, but it's a moment the Iowa Hawkeyes need.

Last year, Iowa had opportunities in these moments when goals hung in the balance, yet faltered. If Iowa can buck that trend this year, this season's goals are still very much within reach.