Three Bold Predictions for Iowa's Mark Gronowski vs. Oregon

If we look at the next game, Mark Gronowski will face his toughest test yet when Iowa hosts No. 6 Oregon on November 8 at Kinnick Stadium. The South Dakota State transfer boasts some elite dual-threat credentials for this matchup. Still, Oregon's historically elite pass defense, which allows just 124.6 yards per game, will likely force Iowa to lean heavily on its ground game.

With an 11-game losing streak against ranked opponents on the line, Gronowski's execution will be critical in Iowa's bid to break through against a top-six program.

Gronowski Will Rush for Two Touchdowns

Gronowski has found the end zone on the ground in eight consecutive games, accumulating 11 rushing touchdowns this season. Iowa's rushing attack averages 4.84 yards per carry and 20 total rushing TDs, showcasing elite efficiency in short-yardage and goal-to-go situations.

Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) carries the ball down field during a college football game against the Penn State Nittany Lions Oct. 18, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Against Oregon's stout but not elite rush defense, Gronowski will convert two rushing TDs through Iowa's methodical, run-heavy approach. His 130-yard, two-touchdown rushing performance against Penn State demonstrates his consistent production when Iowa's offense maintains tempo and execution control.

Gronowski's Passing Yards Will Remain Under 140

If we look at Iowa's offensive philosophy, it prioritizes ball security and field position, with Gronowski averaging just 132.6 passing yards per game through eight contests. Oregon's elite pass defense allows only 124.6 passing yards per game and just four passing TDs all season.

Rather than attacking downfield, Iowa will utilize screens, short routes, and quick-release throws. Gronowski will complete efficient passes to move chains but won't attempt deep throws into Oregon's elite secondary, keeping his passing output modest while maintaining Iowa's offensive rhythm.

Gronowski Surpasses 170 Total Yards Through Dual-Threat Execution

By combining his dual-threat versatility, Gronowski will accumulate 170+ total yards through 80-95 rushing yards on controlled carries and 85-110 passing yards on efficient throws. His eight-game streak of rushing touchdowns provides consistency, while his improved decision-making in short-game situations creates explosive scoring opportunities.

Kinnick Stadium's hostile environment will support Iowa's tempo control, limiting Oregon's ability to adjust defensively and opening lanes for both run and pass plays to succeed within Iowa's methodical system.

An upset victory ends Iowa's 11-game losing streak against ranked opponents and delivers one of the biggest wins in recent program history. The Hawkeyes vault into playoff contention, energize their fanbase at historic Kinnick Stadium, and prove they belong among college football's elite programs heading into the final stretch of the season.

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