Three Last-Minute Predictions for Iowa's Matchup vs. Minnesota

Both the Iowa Hawkeyes and Minnesota Golden Gophers enter Kinnick Stadium with a 5-2 (3-1) record. Both teams have won two straight, but Minnesota's win over No. 25 Nebraska is much more impressive than the Hawkeyes' 25-24 nail-biter over Penn State.

With all eyes on the Hawkeyes' quest to finally beat a good team, head coach Kirk Ferentz has his work cut out for him. Minnesota is no joke, but most of the On SI staff believes Iowa will still prevail. Now that it's gameday, here are three last-minute predictions.

Drew Stevens Kicks A Game-Winning Field Goal

A legend in the making.@HawkeyeFootball kicker Drew Stevens becomes Iowa’s all-time field goals leader with 68 FG made, passing the great Nate Kaeding. pic.twitter.com/xypxSjRvTW
— Kicker Update (@kickerupdate) October 20, 2025

One of the most shocking things heading into this game was the fact that Iowa was favored by more than a touchdown. The Hawkeyes were barely able to beat a Penn State team without quarterback Drew Allar and James Franklin, so that should cause plenty of room for concern.

A win is a win, but momentum is on the side of the Golden Gophers. This could very easily turn out to be a similar game to last week where Iowa finds themselves trailing early. In a crucial B1G matchup, this one will go down to the wire.

Stevens hasn't been perfect, but the senior kicker is 14/19. He's 9/10 on field goals 39 yards or closer, so as long as the Hawkeyes get in his range they should have nothing to worry about.

Oct 18, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) prepares to throw a pass against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Mark Gronowski Throws His First B1G Passing Touchdown

Iowa's Mark Gronowski has not thrown a TD pass since 9/13 against UMass.

In B1G play he has 0 passing touchdowns and 7 rushing touchdowns. pic.twitter.com/Pa126xsiH3
— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) October 21, 2025

Through four conference games, Gronowski has seven rushing touchdowns but no passing touchdowns. He hasn't thrown for a touchdown since he threw for two in the Hawkeys dominant 47-7 win over UMass.

Minnesota allows just 197 passing yards per game, a total Gronowski hasn't reached all season. They'll likely keep that average down, but Gronowski is going to find a way to connect with senior wideout Sam Phillips for his first touchdown of the season.

Red-Zone Scoring Determines The Outcome

One of the most mind-boggling statistics from the Golden Gophers is that they allow opponents to score on 86.4% of trips to the red zone. Iowa has made the most of their drive inside the 20 this season, scoring on 93.5% of their red-zone opportunities.

If Iowa is going to win this game, they cannot let Minnesota beat them in the red-zone. For a team that has played so poorly there all season, Iowa letting Minnesota get the best of them inside the 20 would be a death-sentence.

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