Best Case Scenario for Kansas Basketball in Big 12 Tournament

Kansas secured a No. 3 seed in the Big 12 Tournament to narrowly avoid a bad first-round matchup with Iowa State after the double bye. With Oklahoma State's victory over Colorado last night, the Cowboys advanced to the second round of the tourney and will square off against TCU today for a spot in the quarterfinals.

The Jayhawks will be waiting patiently until tomorrow evening to play their first contest of the tournament, and there are multiple scenarios that could play out for them. Bill Self's group is going to be well-rested and ready to notch a few statement wins before the Big Dance, but here are the best-case scenarios that would make that more likely.

The Best Case Scenario for Kansas in Big 12 Tournament

Kansas met with both the Pokes and Horned Frogs once this season. The Jayhawks came out victorious in each meeting, though in very different fashions.

When TCU and KU squared off in the team's Big 12 home opener, KU trailed by as many as 16 before rallying back for one of the most memorable Allen Fieldhouse comebacks in recent memory. The contest went to overtime after Darryn Peterson sank three free throws with less than two seconds remaining to tie it at 87 apiece.

The win over OSU was far less dramatic, as KU did so on the road with a 23-point performance from Peterson and double-doubles from both starting big men, Flory Bidunga and Bryson Tiller.

Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga (40) dunks the ball against BYU Cougars during the game inside Allen Fieldhouse on Jan. 31, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

TCU is a far better squad than its record suggests, as the Horned Frogs finished the year on a five-game winning streak with eight victories in their last nine outings. Even in some of their losses, like those to KU, BYU, and Houston, the Horned Frogs were competitive for 40 minutes and threatened several times.

Obviously, it would be a better draw if Kansas could face the No. 14 seed in the quarterfinals, but that is still highly unlikely. A matchup with TCU is the most probable outcome for tomorrow — and then is when the real gauntlet begins.

Depending on Houston's performance in the quarterfinals against either BYU or West Virginia, the Jayhawks and Cougars could be set for a round two clash just over two weeks after KU dominated UH in the Phog. However, this showdown would come at a neutral site against one of the best defensive teams in the country and arguably the Big 12's best coach in Kelvin Sampson.

If Kansas is going to make a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament, it may need a little luck to avoid either TCU or Houston. Facing Oklahoma State would likely give the players a better chance to be ready for the following game since it is a less formidable opponent, while a matchup with WVU or BYU would be less challenging on paper, even if both are respectable teams.

Given the recent struggles in the Big 12 Tournament, a return to the championship game (last achieved in 2023) is the absolute best-case scenario for most Jayhawk fans.