Navigating Potential Big 12 Tournament Scenarios for Kansas Basketball

BYU's victory over Texas Tech last night firmly positioned the Kansas basketball program for a No. 3 seed in the Big 12 Tournament. The Jayhawks will have extended rest for the event thanks to a double bye, and have avoided a scenario where they would have had to play Iowa State in the quarterfinals.

With the regular season having concluded and postseason action underway, every game from here on out is significant for the Jayhawks. A few wins in the conference tourney could boost the team from its current projection on the four-seed line in March Madness.

A historic #Big12MBB season has led us to this moment.

The OFFICIAL 2026 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men's Basketball Tournament Bracket is here 👀 pic.twitter.com/tkKZYPWggt
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) March 8, 2026

The first game KU plays will be in a quarterfinal matchup against one of TCU, Colorado, or Oklahoma State. The Jayhawks finished the regular season with a combined 3-0 record over these schools.

Game 1: No. 6 TCU vs. Winner of No. 11 vs. 14 Game

On Kansas' side of the bracket, No. 11 seed Colorado and No. 14 Oklahoma State will kick off the tournament. The winner of that showdown will advance to play TCU the following day.

KU narrowly took down both CU and the Pokes on the road this year, approximately one month apart. It did so without head coach Bill Self on the sidelines in Boulder as he recovered from a brief hospitalization.

Jan 20, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Kansas Jayhawks assistant coach Jacque Vaughn reacts in the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The first matchup against TCU was one of the most memorable of the season. Despite trailing by 15 points in the final few minutes, woes from Jamie Dixon's squad and three game-tying free throws from Darryn Peterson sent the game into overtime for a 104-100 KU victory.

The Horned Frogs ended the regular season winning eight of their final nine contests, taking down Iowa State and Texas Tech in the process. But still, most Jayhawk fans can agree that they are a far less formidable opponent than the Cyclones for a first-round tilt.

A Potential Rematch With Houston?

If this group can get by TCU or one of the two aforementioned teams, all signs point to a potential round two clash with Houston. The Jayhawks are just two weeks removed from a 13-point blowout over the Cougars inside the Phog.

There is still a scenario where Kansas meets with West Virginia if the struggling Cougars bow out of the tournament early. No. 10 seed BYU is also a sneaky opponent on UH's radar, even with its unfortunate injuries in recent weeks.

Given the program's subpar 3-3 record in the conference tournament since 2023, it would be a welcome sight for the Jayhawks to finally reclaim the Big 12 crown again. Although it is a favorable draw on paper, Kansas needs to play pristine basketball in all of its tourney games to ensure a bump to a No. 3 seed come Selection Sunday.