Bracketology: Kansas Jayhawks’ Best-Case Position in the NCAA Tournament

It is now officially March, which means the Kansas Jayhawks (11-5, 21-8) are gearing up for their final Big 12 action of the 2025-26 season as they position themselves for one of the top seeds in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

First, the No. 14-ranked Jayhawks will head to Tempe, Arizona, Tuesday night to take on Arizona State. The unranked Sun Devils are currently ranked 12th in the Big 12 with a 6-10 conference record and 15-14 record overall.

Following that road trip, KU will head back to Lawrence for their final home game of the season inside Allen Fieldhouse where they will host the Big 12’s last place team – Kansas State (2-14, 11-18) – for Senior Night and round two of this year’s Sunflower Showdown.

The Jayhawks will need to win both of those games and have a good showing in the Big 12 Tournament if they hope to earn the most favorable position in the NCAA Tournament to set themselves up for a potential Final Four run for the first time in four years.

Bracket Scenario

According to ESPN’s Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi, Kansas is currently slated as a No. 3 seed playing in the West region.

That means, should KU win their first two games in the NCAA Tournament, they would be playing their Sweet 16 game and potentially their Elite Eight matchup in San Jose, California. And if they do reach the Elite Eight, it’s very likely they’ll have to face Big 12 foe Arizona who is projected to earn one of the four No. 1 seeds.

That would be a tough matchup for KU and would seriously hamper their chances of reaching the Final Four. However, if they can play well this week and in the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City next week, they’ll have a chance at a much favorable path.

That ideal path starts in Oklahoma City, where the Jayhawks should hope to play in the first (and hopefully) second round. The drive from the Lawrence/Kansas City area is only about four to four and a half hours and would almost certainly give the Jayhawks a home crowd feel for the first two games.

If KU can get through to the second weekend, there would be no place better for them than in Chicago – host city of the Midwest region. Outside of Kansas City, Chicago is home to KU’s largest alumni base in the country. Jayhawk fans would show up in droves to support the team.

But the only likely scenario that lands KU in the Chicago region is if the Jayhawks can catapult themselves ahead of their other potential No. 3 seeds – which would be Iowa State, Nebraska, and Purdue according to the latest Bracketology reveal from Lunardi – or somehow reach the 2-seed line. The latter would likely require KU going undefeated the rest of the way in conference play and winning the Big 12 Tournament.

There are a lot of factors still at play and nothing is a guarantee in the NCAA Tournament, but right now, KU has the opportunity in front of them to secure a favorable path to the Final Four.