ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Kansas vs Houston Outcome in Big 12 Tourney

Kansas was able to narrowly avoid an upset to TCU last night, pulling off a 78-73 victory over the Horned Frogs in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Now, the Jayhawks will set their sights on Houston, the No. 2 seed in the tourney and the No. 5-ranked team in the country.

Although KU came out on top in a blowout win when these schools first met in the regular season, UH opened as the betting favorite on most sportsbooks, with oddsmakers listing them as a 5.5-point favorite. Kelvin Sampson's squad will also be playing on a back-to-back after defeating BYU in a tight matchup yesterday.

The odds are in Houston's favor early on, but what does the ESPN Matchup Predictor have to say? Here's what the computer model is projecting heading into the contest.

Houston vs Kansas: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

Even on a neutral site, Houston is a fairly significant favorite in the Matchup Predictor. The Cougars are given nearly a three-fourths chance to take down the Jayhawks tonight in the rematch of last month's showdown.

Kansas Jayhawks forward Bryson Tiller (15) looks for a pass against Houston Cougars during the game inside Allen Fieldhouse on Monday, Feb. 23, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Houston 72.9%, Kansas 27.1%.

Kansas On SI's Take

Obviously, this probability is a bit low for a team that comfortably defeated its opponent less than a month ago in Allen Fieldhouse. Then again, the home-court advantage in the Phog is unlike any in the country, and UH was coming off a difficult stretch.

Houston has not been playing its best basketball lately, having lost three straight games before rattling off its current four-game winning streak. Yesterday, the Cougars trailed midway through the second half and eventually went on a run to close things out.

This Houston team is no different than in past years in the Big 12. They are gritty, defense-oriented, and consistently come up with 50-50 balls.

Those are the exact kind of teams KU often struggles with, and it's a bit concerning that the Jayhawks had as much trouble as they did on the defensive glass yesterday against an undersized TCU squad. Still, the Jayhawks outrebounded Houston 38 to 33 in their first matchup and won the defensive rebounding battle by 11.

Although star freshmen Darryn Peterson and Kingston Flemings will be the headliners, the winner of this game will likely be decided in the paint. If the Jayhawks can toughen up and come away with loose balls, they have a solid chance at advancing to the championship round tomorrow.