ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Kansas vs K-State Basketball Matchup

Although Kansas has looked shaky recently after losing four of its last six matchups, it has a bounce-back opportunity tomorrow afternoon against Kansas State. The Wildcats sit at a measly 3-14 in conference play and are reeling after firing head coach Jerome Tang a few weeks ago.

Given that Bill Self's group defeated the Wildcats by 24 points on their home court in January, it is very clear who will be favored going into the matchup. The Jayhawks opened as 16.5-point favorites on most sportsbooks when the line came out.

Regardless, KU is looking to protect a streak of winning its home regular-season finale, something it has done every year since the 1983-84 campaign. Will the Jayhawks be able to maintain this record against their in-state rival?

K-State at Kansas: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

With over a 90% chance at victory, this is the largest win probability Kansas has held over an opponent in the Matchup Predictor in all of conference play this season. It is even higher than when the team hosted last place Utah in Allen Fieldhouse last month.

Jan 24, 2026; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self watches his team during the first half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images | Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Kansas 90.8%, K-State 9.2%.

Kansas On SI's Take

K-State has not won in Allen Fieldhouse since 2006 and has one of its worst teams in the modern era. There is very little concern among Jayhawk fans about who will come out victorious.

Since the program is hosting its Senior Day, where six graduating players will deliver speeches, it should serve as a feel-good win and a tune-up for the Big 12 Tournament next week. Coach Self is so confident in his group that he plans to start a pair of walk-ons in Justin Cross and Wilder Evers in the opening five.

All eyes will be on the games after KU's once the inevitable result goes down, as it looks to secure a top-four spot in the conference, which would result in a double bye in the league tournament. This could happen with a win over the Wildcats and a Texas Tech loss to BYU on its own Senior Day. An Iowa State loss to Arizona State is also possible, though it is highly unlikely given the Cyclones' dominance at home.

Ultimately, Kansas should have no problem winning this game by double digits, and it will probably be the easiest matchup the team plays for the rest of the season. Even with the bad blood between these two schools, K-State is struggling so badly right now that the Jayhawk faithful may almost feel bad rooting against the current state of its basketball program.