Kansas at Iowa State Basketball Preview: Overcoming Hilton Magic
Kansas’ narrow defeat of Iowa State at home was the last win before the three-game skid that sent Jayhawk fans into a panic. Now the Jayhawks will be heading to Ames on Saturday looking to extend its new winning streak to three games.
Opponent Overview
Team: Iowa State
Record: 15-6
KenPom: 18
Line: TBD
Team Form
Kansas and Iowa State are teams currently heading in different directions. The Cyclones have lost two in a row after beating Kansas State, getting whooped by 17 to Missouri and then blowing a 23-point lead to Texas Tech to give the Red Raiders their first Big 12 win.
The difference in ISU’s play of late has been the location of the game. The Cyclones have lost their last four road contests, having not won away from Ames since beating TCU on January 7. Yes, one of those was at Kansas, but the other three were against the previously mentioned Mizzou and two bottom-half Big 12 teams in Oklahoma State and Tech.
On the flip side, Iowa State has yet to lose at home, already beating Baylor, Texas, and K-State in Hilton.
Players to Watch
The Cyclones have three key scorers that lead them on offense. Iowa State has fared as well as Jaren Holmes has played of late. In the Cyclones last six games, Holmes has scored 20+ points twice (both wins) and was held to single digits in three of the four other games (all losses).
In the loss in which Holmes was good offensively, ISU was without Caleb Grill. Grill didn’t face Missouri because of a back injury, which he initially suffered in the Texas game. But he was back for Texas Tech in Lubbock and hit eight of 12 threes for 24 points.
The most consistent scorer for the Cyclones is Gabe Kalscheur, who has scored in double figures in 12 of his last 13 games. That includes the 23 points that Kalscheur dropped on Kansas in Lawrence. Another big factor in the first matchup against KU was Osun Osunniyi down in the post, who recorded 14 points (on 7-9 shooting), six rebounds, and three blocks before fouling out.
Matchups to Watch
Iowa State struggles to score points for long stretches – like only scoring 16 points in the last 10 minutes of regulation and five minutes of overtime against Tech – but it’s not because it’s inefficient. The Cyclones lead the conference in effective field-goal percentage in Big 12 play and are also the best 3-point shooting team in league play at 38.4%. The problem is ISU also turns it over nearly 19% of the time. The Cyclones also play at the slowest tempo in the conference, so there just aren’t as many attempts for them.
In the first matchup against Kansas, ISU got extra attempts by grabbing 13 offensive rebounds (33% of its chances) but the Jayhawks were strong defensively, making the Cyclones shoot just 15 of 40 from two-point range. ISU also struggles to get to the free-throw line and shoot the worst percentage from the line (66% in conference play) of any Big 12 team. That played out in Lawrence as ISU just went 6-10 from the free-throw line.
Prediction
It’s clear Iowa State is a different team at home than on the road. I’m curious now, though, what blowing that 23-point lead to Tech will do for its mentality.
Meanwhile, Kansas is playing with renewed passion after the last two games but is dealing with the issue of being banged up. It sounds like both Kevin McCullar and Bobby Pettiford are expected to play, which is big not just because McCullar has been tremendous lately but also because MJ Rice has been battling back issues and the guard position is getting limited.
The positive for Kansas is that it has played in its share of hostile environments already and has proven ball handlers to limit Iowa State from forcing turnovers, as it does well (it is best in the Big 12 at turning opponents over). I also expect Kansas to have a better answer for Osunniyi with Ernest Udeh, who didn’t play in the first game.
This is an important game with Kansas State and Texas facing off later on Saturday. Give me Kansas to leave Hilton with a narrow win.
Kansas 71, Iowa State 66
Prediction record
11-9-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 79-74 KU | Actual: 90-78 KU
