Kansas vs Texas Big 12 Tournament Basketball Preview: Who Will Cut Down the Nets in KC?
It’s all chalk for the Big 12 Tournament championship game. Now the only question is if it will be a rock chalk ending.
Opponent Overview
Team: Texas
Record: 25-8
KenPom: 9
Line: KU -2
Team Form
Texas’ recent schedule should be well known to Kansas fans. Many had their eyes on the results of every recent UT game as the battle for the top of the Big 12 unfolded. And, of course, the regular season ended with a definitive 75-59 win by the Longhorns over the Jayhawks in Austin.
The Big 12 Tournament has been a different look for Texas. The Longhorns scored more than 70 points in seven of their last eight games of the regular season, but have failed to score more than 66 points so far in this tournament. It has not been a good shooting tournament for Texas so far, but both because of its defense and out of some luck, it hasn’t been a good shooting tournament for its two opponents (Oklahoma State and TCU) either.
This has not been the case for Kansas, who has found some offensive groove in Kansas City.
Players to Watch
Neither team is at full strength, and for Texas, that’s because Timmy Allen has missed the first two games with a lower leg injury, which sounds like it took place during the Kansas game in Austin. As of writing this, I haven’t seen anything regarding his status for the championship game.
Dylan Disu and Christian Bishop stepped up in Allen’s absence, both scoring 15 points in the semifinal game. Disu also had an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double against the Cowboys in the quarterfinals.
None of Texas’ guards have played particularly well yet. But Marcus Carr can get hot and change a game in a hurry. And arguably the most dangerous wing Kansas needs to account for is Sir’Jabari Rice. Though the sharpshooter is just 1-12 from three in this tournament so far. It will be interesting to watch if he’s able to find his stroke in the finale.
Matchups to Watch
Goal number one for Kansas has to be taking care of the ball. Oklahoma State turned it over 20 times and TCU 14 more against Texas in the last two games, and 22 of those were Texas steals. If Kansas does feel the need to turn it over – it’s not recommended – the best action is to toss it into the stands. You don’t want to get into a fast-break game with Texas.
And just like the last two games, the Jayhawks have to limit the Longhorns to one shot per possession, while being aggressive on the other end. KU grabbed 14 offensive boards in the win in Lawrence and just seven in the loss in Austin. Adams is key here. He had seven of KU’s 14 in the first matchup and didn’t grab a single offensive board in the second.
Finally, can Harris make life difficult on Carr and cut the head off the snake? Harris made Carr turn it over four times in Lawrence and had him rattled from the tip before Carr finally got it going in the second half. Harris was great on Gabe Kalscheur yesterday. He’s got to be tired but if he can muster up another impressive defensive performance, Kansas’ chances go up.
Prediction
Texas has separated itself as the clear second-best team in the conference and a dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament. Their guards are tremendous and they’re extremely athletic. That being said, Kansas seems to be clicking right now. Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick have broken out of their shooting funks. Dajuan Harris continues to be a maestro on both ends. And KJ Adams has found a renewed aggressiveness on offense.
Obviously health is a big factor here. How much can Kevin McCullar play with his back? Can Allen make an appearance for Texas? And, of course, does Texas find its shooting form?
Kansas is playing inspired basketball at the moment and I would imagine that there’s some revenge in that locker room wanting payback for how the regular season ended. Give me Kansas in a close one to cut down the nets, hopefully not for the last time this season.
Kansas 77, Texas 74
Prediction record
18-12-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 71-66 KU | Actual: 71-58 KU
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