Kansas vs Texas Tech Basketball Preview: Can KU Win a 40th Straight Senior Night?
Tuesday is the final game in Allen Fieldhouse for the 2022-23 season. And while Kansas will be honoring Kevin McCullar and Jalen Wilson, it is also likely the final game for freshman Gradey Dick, who is a projected lottery pick in this year’s NBA Draft.
Along with those stakes when it tips off against Texas Tech, KU has another goal to play for. A win over the Red Raiders ensures at least a share of a Big 12 title. That would be 17 of them under Bill Self in 20 years.
Opponent Overview
Team: Texas Tech
Record: 16-13
KenPom: 51
Line: KU -10
Team Form
This is not the same Texas Tech team that Kansas first faced on January 3. That team was a game into what would be an eight-game losing streak to start Big 12 play. But since that initial stretch, the Red Raiders have won six of their last nine. And if it wasn’t for a last-second shot by TCU on Saturday, we’d be talking about Tech coming into AFH on a five-game winning streak.
Those last four wins were no fluke, either. Tech beat K-State and Texas at home in back-to-back games by a combined 15 points before winning on the road at West Virginia (something many haven’t done of late) and at Oklahoma.
Players to Watch
During this nine-game resurgence, it has been De’Vion Harmon at the helm. The fourth-year player has scored in double figures in eight of those nine games, including three 20-point games. His best stretch came against the best competition, as he scored 45 points and dished six assists against KSU and Texas.
Kevin Obanor has been almost as good of late. And he boosts Tech’s offensive efficiency. Along with shooting 59% from two during Big 12 play (ninth best individually), he also does the double damage of getting free points while getting opponents in foul trouble. Obanor’s free-throw rate in conference play is fourth best, and he’s shooting 77% when he gets to the line.
What is impressive is the Red Raiders have been hot despite missing freshman Pop Isaacs for six games, including the K-State and Texas wins. But what Tech has now that it didn’t have in early January is a healthy 6-11, 245-pound Fardaws Aimaq. Aimaq missed all of November and December — and some January — with a foot injury. And after a setback that kept him out five games, he has played in the last five games and has scored in double figures in four of those with two double-doubles. The best was a 19-point, 10-rebound effort against Oklahoma.
Matchups to Watch
Texas Tech’s numbers in conference play aren’t going to wow you, but two areas where the Red Raiders are executing is in grabbing offensive rebounds and not sending opponents to the free-throw line. Tech’s 30.8% offensive-rebounding percentage is fourth in the Big 12 and its ability to keep opponents from the line is second to only TCU.
This is big in an environment like Allen Fieldhouse. Second-chance points and not letting KU get free points is the way to keep it close. The Red Raiders have also done a nice job keeping teams from hitting many threes against them, as Big 12 opponents are shooting just 33.4% from behind the arc. The flip side is Tech is giving up 52% (only Baylor is worse) from two-point range.
The issue is that the Red Raiders can get turnover happy, which is not the way to win at AFH. Tech is turning it over once every five possessions during conference play, and that was the case the first game around when Tech turned it over 15 times and Kansas had eight steals.
Texas Tech will likely look to last Saturday for the recipe it looks to imitate Tuesday. Against TCU, Tech grabbed 11 offensive boards, held TCU to 6-21 shooting from three, and only turned it over 12 times against a Horned Frogs team known for forcing turnovers. That’s more likely than what happened against KU in Lubbock where both teams shot above 45% from three while hitting 11 and 10, respectively.
Prediction
This is not hyperbole. I’ve never seen Kansas lose on senior night. There’s been more than 30 chances in that time (this will be 33, to be exact) but Kansas always wins. In fact, KU has won its last 39 in the Allen Fieldhouse finale. That’s absolutely bonkers.
Tech is much improved from early January, just as West Virginia was. So by no means am I saying this will be a cakewalk. Kansas will have to bring more energy and offensive firepower Tuesday than it did Saturday. But I’m not going against Bill Self on a day fans will celebrate Wilson and McCullar and with the chance to win a 17th Big 12 title in 20 years (also bonkers).
So yeah, I’m riding with the Jayhawks here.
Kansas 79, Texas Tech 71
Prediction record
15-12-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 77-67 KU | Actual: 76-74 KU
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