Kansas vs UCF Basketball: ESPN’s Computer Model Predicts Winner

Is Kansas or UCF favored to win their respective Big 12 openers this weekend? Here's what the ESPN Matchup Predictor thinks.

Dec 7, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self reacts during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Kansas and UCF are set to face off in Orlando this Saturday to open Big 12 play in front of roughly 9,000 Knights fans.

It will be the second true road game of the season for KU, just a few weeks after it pulled away with an exhilarating overtime victory over NC State in Raleigh. Much like that contest, this one could be a dogfight for the Jayhawks as they look to start Big 12 action with a 1-0 record.

Initial betting lines have Kansas listed as the favorite, but the Knights boast a top offense in the Big 12 and are just two years removed from upsetting then-No. 3 ranked Kansas at Addition Financial Arena. Will Bill Self's squad be able to quiet UCF and start the new year strong?

Kansas at UCF: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

According to the ESPN Matchup Predictor, Kansas has about a two-thirds chance to come out victorious.

Jan 28, 2025; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks forward KJ Adams Jr. (24) and UCF Knights guard Keyshawn Hall (4) fight for a loose ball during the first half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Kansas 67.0%, UCF 33.0%.

The odds have shifted in recent days, with UCF's win probability once being around 35.0%. Regardless, the consensus pick is a Kansas victory.

Kansas On SI's Take

UCF ranks as the No. 45 team on KenPom and has only lost one game this season, so the matchup predictor giving Kansas such a generous probability is significant.

That could signal that Darryn Peterson, who has yet to be officially ruled active, may be making his return to the court after a two-game absence. The Jayhawks have direly missed his contributions while he has been out, though they still managed to pick up quality wins over teams like Tennessee and Syracuse without him.

UCF is a talented yet flawed team, scoring 80+ points in all but one of its games while giving up a high number of points on the defensive end. Meanwhile, KU boasts a top-10 defense nationally, thanks to the paint presence of Flory Bidunga and strong perimeter defenders.

RELATED: No. 17 Kansas vs UCF: Get to Know the Knights

The Knights thrive in transition and prefer a run-and-gun style of play, so forcing them into a half-court offense to take them out of their comfort zone could be key for Kansas. Some of their top players include Jordan Burks (13.8 PPG), Themus Fulks (13.3 PPG, 7.2 APG), and former KU commit Riley Kugel (13.7 PPG).

We will find out soon which team comes out on top, but the matchup predictor's outlook is certainly an encouraging sign for Jayhawk fans.