2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Preview: West Region

Will Gonzaga make a return trip to the Final Four or will the Zags be dethroned?

Here at Blue Wings Rising, we realize that you care about ALL the brackets in the NCAA Tournament, whether that's because you are looking for a leg up in your bracket pool, you secretly want validation that your off-the-wall pick to make the Final Four is COMPLETELY crazy, or you just love college basketball and can't help but read everything you can from every source available.

Whatever the reason, we have scoured the brackets, looked at the numbers and come up with the top things you need to account for when evaluating each region of the NCAA Tournament. We've already completed the East regional and the Midwest Regional. Up next, the West Regional:

The West region is packed with storylines. Gonzaga is back on the one line trying to return to the title game. Memphis is in the field after turning around its season without its best freshman and NBA prospect. Former Michigan State Spartan Foster Loyer is now with Davidson and will face his former team in the first round. Oh, and Coach K is retiring after this tournament. Not sure why no one has talked about that.

Best First Round Game

7 Michigan State against 10 Davidson

These teams are 40th (MSU) and 41st (Davidson) in KenPom respectively, both shoot threes at a top-20 percentage, and both are in the top quadrant of the tallest teams in the country. While Michigan St. turns it over more than Davidson, the Spartans counter by being much better on the offensive boards. The point being that there’s not much separating these two, which should make it a close, coin-flip-type game.

Upset Pick

© Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

13 Vermont over 4 Arkansas

The Catamounts have had solid teams over the years, and offensively speaking, this is one of their best. Vermont is third nationally in both effective field goal percentage and two-point percentage, while also shooting it from downtown effectively at nearly 37%. They also are one of the best teams in the country at protecting the ball, and while they don’t grab offensive rebounds, no team has been better at keeping opponents off the offensive glass.

And while Arkansas is stout on defense and forced turnovers, the Razorbacks only shoot 30% from three, so if this gets into a three-point shooting contest, Arkansas could be in trouble.

Cinderella Team to Watch

© BRIAN JENKINS/For the FREE PRESS via Imagn Content Services, LLC

It’s still Vermont. In addition to what I mentioned above, the Catamounts have only lost once (a 75-74 defeat in OT) since facing Providence on December 7 and just won the American East tournament by an average margin of 36 points. Meanwhile, Arkansas and UCONN are among the lowest-ranked four and five seeds according to KenPom. A trip to the Sweet 16 is not out of the question.

Best Potential Second Round/Sweet 16 Matchup

© William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

In the second round, Gonzaga against Memphis is enticing. Memphis has been one of the best teams in the country from February on, jumping from 66th to 28th in KenPom since January 27 while only losing twice in that time. Duke against either Tom Izzo or a Davidson team that he has refused to schedule of late is also a great option.

For the Sweet 16, Texas Tech’s defensive pressure against Duke’s offensive firepower is a fascinating contrast of styles. Tech is the best defense nationally according to KenPom, while Duke has scored at least 80 points in five of its last six but given up at least 80 in its last two losses.

Players to Watch

© Joe Rondone/The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Gonzaga’s All-American duo of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren is well known, as is Duke’s Paolo Banchero. But if the reasons above aren’t enough to check out Vermont against Arkansas, these players are. The Catamounts have a two-headed monster in Ryan Davis (17.2 points per game and 5.7 rebounds per game) and Ben Shungu (16.1 ppg and 4.5 rpg) that will be going up against third-team AP All-American JD Notae, who is averaging 18.4 points, 4.5 boards, and 3.7 assists on the season.

Another player to watch for is Memphis’ Jalen Duren. The 6-11 freshman is averaging 12.2 points and 8.1 boards on the year and recently put up a 21 point, 20 rebound performance against UCF.

Dark Horse Pick

© Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

While I don’t hate Vermont as a potential Cinderella Sweet 16 run, don’t overlook UCONN as the five seed. The Huskies are balanced with three strong players in Tyrese Martin, RJ Cole, and Adama Sanogo and have only lost twice since mid-February. It is also the No. 2 offensive rebounding team, which helps make up for its struggles scoring inside the arc.

Regional Final Prediction

Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Andrew Nembhard (3) against the Saint Mary's Gaels during the second half in the finals of the WCC Basketball Championships at Orleans Arena.

© Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

It’s tough to see this going any other way but Gonzaga against either Texas Tech or Duke in the Elite 8. And this feels like the Zags region to lose. I’ll say Gonzaga goes back to the Final Four with just one or two tests along the way. 

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